Covid-19 - Visualizing the US data.

Introduction

Method

The Covid-19 statistics are from Johns Hopkins University (JHU). There are raw data for confirmed cases and deaths by date for each county in each state. The data from the counties are aggregated into the values for the state.

For each state, we extracted various demographics including the ISO 2 character label, population, area, population density, education, income, median age, political leaning. The demographics were obtained from the following sources.

Demographic	Origin	Extracted file
Population, Area	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population_density	usstates.csv
ISO2	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_3166-2:US	usstates.csv
Education	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_educational_attainmen	us-education.csv
Income	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_income	us-income.csv
Median age	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age	us-age.csv
Political leaning	https://www.270towin.com/	us-politics.csv

It also ranks the age, income, and education demographics for each state into low, medium, or high based on their tertiles. This is so these demographics can be used with the chare.ca's grouping.

A Perl script covid-us.pl was developed to gather the above information and cast it in a suitable form for the www.charte.ca motion charts and correlation data. See here for example.

Results

Motion chart of deaths vs Covid-19 Confirmed cases with bubbles sized by population for US states and colored by political leaning

Ungrouped

Deaths vs Confirmed:

We tend to use a log log chart which provides a greater visibility of a wide range of data (compare the two charts below), and since both the confirmed data and deaths are exponential in their behavior for most states.
Linear plot Log Log plot

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The first confirmed cases were seen by WA 1/22/20, IL a day later and AZ & CA on 1/25/20
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First deaths reported for Washington State were at the start of March
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Deaths start to really increase in the second week in March
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By the start of April, NY followed by NJ were leading the way in both deaths and confirmed cases
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By the end of the second week in April, SD and UT are noticeably below the general line followed by other states
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On 3/30/20 WV was the last state to record a Covid-19 death
At the end of the second week in April, WY appears to be the last state to have greater than one Corona-19 death.
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Deaths/Million Population vs Confirmed cases/Million Population

The leading states in terms of deaths per million population are: NY, NJ, CT, MA, LA, MI, DE,DC, RI.
The leading states in terms of confirmed per million of population are: NY, NJ, MA, DE, CT,RI, LA, DC, MI

If one does not normalize by population the NY and NJ standout followed by the top of the bunch being MA and MI
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Looking at a log vs log plot the trailing states one sees the lowest deaths are for AK SD, HI, MT, WY, ND. The lowest Confirmed cases are for AK, SD, SD,HI, MT, WY, ND.
Note that since it is a log-log scale no bubble appears for a state until there is at least 1 confirmed case and 1 death for the state.
% Confirmed and deaths both low for AK, VT, NH, ID
Cluster of DE, DC and RI with low deaths compared to the % confirmed cases
NY, NJ, MA, DE, CT, LA, RI, DC have the highest % confirmed cases.
By March 14th, WA, NY, CA, FL were reporting deaths.

Grouped data

If we color the bubbles by each state's political leaning the chart appears below. It is apparent that Covid-19 is impacting democratic states the hardest, followed by the swing states.

We can also group the data by age, income or education tertiles

Grouped by Income	Grouped by Age

Possible further work

Look at the California counties data from JHU using the same analysis and visualization.

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