The positivity rate is "the percentage of positive cases among those who are tested". See https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/07/13/what-exactly-does-the-covid-19-positivity-rate-tell-us/ or https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/health/coronavirus-positivity-rate-explainer/index.html for more information. The following chart showing the positivity rate for US states is from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity where it is stated "On May 12, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) advised governments that before reopening, rates of positivity in testing (ie, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) of should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days."
The top 9 states are shown below ranked by their Positivity Rate (from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity 9/8/2020) together with some demographics and statistics. The smoothing is a 7 day moving average.
- The population is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population,
- the political leaning is from www.270towin.com updated: Sep. 9, 2020
- the Income per capita is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_income.
| State | ID | Population | Positivity | Covid-19 confirmed so far | deaths so far | %deaths/ confirmed | confirmed/ MPop so far | deaths/ MPop so far | smoothed (daily Confirmed/ MPop) | smoothed (daily Deaths/ MPop) | Political leaning | Income per capita ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | ND | 756927 | 19.58% | 13872 | 156 | 1.12 | 18326.7343 | 206.0965 | 353.3083 | 2.076064 | Safe Republican | 33071 |
| South Dakota | SD | 858469 | 18.73% | 15403 | 173 | 1.12 | 17942.4068 | 201.5215 | 275.2408 | 0.99845539 | Safe Republican | 26959 |
| Alabama | AL | 4858979 | 18.42% | 133606 | 2277 | 1.7 | 27496.7231 | 468.617 | 176.1099 | 2.263850 | Safe Republican | 23606 |
| Kansas | KS | 2911641 | 18.36% | 56854 | 579 | 1.02 | 19526.4457 | 198.8569 | 224.5175 | 2.5513348 | Likely Republican | 27870 |
| Mississippi | MS | 2992333 | 17.28% | 89069 | 2619 | 2.94 | 29765.738 | 875.2368 | 186.0469 | 4.965070 | Safe Republican | 21036 |
| Iowa | IA | 3123899 | 15.31% | 71142 | 1185 | 1.67 | 22773.4635 | 379.3336 | 236.6091 | 2.7438239 | Leaning Republican | 28361 |
| Idaho | ID | 1654930 | 14.78% | 33978 | 389 | 1.14 | 20531.382 | 235.0553 | 140.2735 | 1.8990876 | Safe Republican | 23938 |
| Missouri | MO | 6083672 | 14.5% | 96181 | 1690 | 1.76 | 15809.6952 | 277.7928 | 221.7411 | 3.0057034 | Likely Republican | 26126 |
| Florida | FL | 20271272 | 13.32% | 650092 | 11915 | 1.83 | 32069.6205 | 587.7776 | 134.2646 | 3.8125735 | Tossup | 26582 |
The following charts are obtained from the analysis of the Covid-19 statistics are from the Johns Hopkins University (JHU). There are raw data for confirmed cases and deaths by date for each county in each US state. For the US state analysis, the data from the counties are aggregated into the values for each state.
Cumulative confirmed cases Click on chart for more details | Cumulative deaths Click on chart for more details |
|---|---|
 |  |
Covid-19 % deaths/confirmed cases Click on chart for more details | Covid-19 confirmed cases per million population Click on chart for more details | Covid-19 deaths per million population Click on chart for more details |
|---|---|---|
 |  |  |
Covid-19 smoothed confirmed cases per day per million population Click on chart for more details | Covid-19 smoothed deaths per day per million population Click on chart for more details |
|---|---|
 |  |
Details about the timelines, government resposes to, and impact of Covid-19 on the US states can be found via https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States_by_state. It is not hard to believe that some of the surges are related to events, behaviors, interventions, and responses. For example:
- In South Dakota, the surge of confirmed cases in July following the July 3rd Mount Rushmore Independence Day celebration. This in turn was followed by a spike in confirmed cases following the Sturgis motorcycle rally August 7-16.
Observations:
- Florida reported its first cases 3/3/20 and its first death 3/8/20, the latter date being the same day that Kansas and Missouri announced their first confirmed cases. None of the other 6 states had any confirmed cases by this date.
- As would be expected since Florida has over three times the population of any of the other states, its confirmed cases and. deaths lead the way by a wide margin.
- In terms of deaths/confirmed cases, Missouri led until the end of July when Mississippi took the lead.
- When one normalizes cases by the population of each state, then the confirmed cases and deaths are more evenly spread, and none of the states has flattened its curve of confirmed cases.
- Idaho appears to have managed to flatten its curve of deaths/million population after 5/11/20 until 7/15/20 when it took off again.
- Florida, Mississippi, and Alabama appear to have a peak in daily confirmed cases two to three weeks after the July 4th holiday. There is a further rise in daily confirmed cases for North and South Dakota, Iowa, and Alabama towards the end of August.