Covid-19 - Visualizing California data

Demographics by California county

For each California county, we extracted various demographics including: population, area, population density, education, income, median age, political leaning, ethnicity. The demographics were obtained from the following sources.

california-politics.csv

california-age.csv 

california-politics.csv

Map of counties and a map of regions see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_Californiaa

California Counties Covid-19  San Francisco Bay Area confirmed cases and deaths

The Covid-19 case history came from Johns Hopkins University (JHU)  for: Confirmed cases and Deaths.

San Francisco Bay counties deaths/confirmed cases 8/25/20 Click on chart for more Information	San Francisco Bay counties smoothed daily cases per million population 8/25/20 Click on chart for more Information	San Francisco Bay counties smoothed daily cases per million population (log10 y scale) 8/25/20 Click on chart for more Information

San Francisco Bay Area counties % daily deaths/confirmed cases 8/10/20 Click on chart for more Information	San Francisco Bay Area counties Cumulative deaths per million population 8/10/20 Click on chart for more Information

San Francisco Bay Area daily confirmed cases / Million population (linear y axis) Click on chart for more Information	San Francisco Bay Area daily confirmed cases per Million population (log10 y axis) Click on chart for more Information

Observations:

• The first confirmed case was in Santa Clara 1/31/20. 
• The first death was also in Santa Clara 3/10/2020.
• The second county to record a confirmed case was San Mateo on 3/16/2020.
• San Mateo took over the lead in cumulative deaths/Million population at the end of March, only to be overtaken by Marin mod July.
• All counties started to reduce the ratio deaths/confirmed cases after 5/5/2020.,
• Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, and Solano continue to reduce the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases.
• There was an uptick in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases in Sonoma starting around 6/29/2020.
• There was an uptick in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases in Marin starting around 7/3/2020.
• There was an uptick in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases in Napa starting around 7/18/2020.
• Marin has recorded the highest daily confirmed cases/Million population. Also see https://abc7news.com/covid-cases-latino-california-coronavirus-marin-county/6329375/. 
• Marin has also recorded the highest cumulative deaths per Million population

California Covid-19 for coastal counties from San Mateo southwards

California coastal counties confirmed cases 8/13/2020 Click on Chart for more information	California coastal counties cumulative deaths 8/13/2020 Click on Chart for more information

California coastal counties %deaths.confirmed cases 8/13/20 Click on Chart for more information

Observations:

• The firsr confirmed cases were in LA county and Orange counties Jan 26,2020.
• The first death was in LA county Mar 3, 2020.
• As of Aug 13, 2020 LA county (population almost 10 Million) is far and away the leader in confirmed case with 214K cases and 511 deaths. Orange county is next (with a population of just over 3 Million) with 42K  cases.
• If one normalizes by county population, then Santa Barbara takes the lead followed by Orange county and Monterey county.
• For comparison we included San Mateo county one of the Bay Area counties top counties in terms of Covid-19 cases. It is one of the bottom 3 California coastal counties in terms of confirmed cases.
• Looking at the ratio %(deaths/confirmed cases) LA county leads followed by Santa Barbara county, San Mateo county and Orange County

 

 

 

 

 

California Sierra-Nevada counties

Counties

Name	ID	Population	1st confirmed case	1st deaths	by 8/25/20 confirmed cases	by 8/25/20 deaths
Alpine	ALP	1,202	4/1/20	0	2	0
Calaveras	CAL	44.291	3/11/20	7/21/20	197	2
El Dorado	ED	181,465	3/23/20	7/21/20	924	2
Mariposa	MPA	17,946	4/25/20	5/15/20	70	8
Mono	MNO	14,193	3/21/20	4/11/20	162	8
Nevada	NEV	398,606	5/22/20	4/4/20	423	3
Placer	PLA	361,518	3/2/20	3/4/20	2823	328
Sierra	SIE	3,019	5/22/20	0	6	0

 

Click on charts below for more details

Cumulative confirmed cases	Cumulative confirmed cases per million population	Cumulative deaths per million population

% deaths/confirmed cases	Log10(% deaths/confirmed)	daily confirmed cases per million population

California June 2020

bubbles sized by population density for CA Counties and colored by per capita income (Jan 25, 2020 - Apr 30, 2020)

cases per million population with bubbles sized by CA county population and colored by per capita income (May 1, 2020 - Jun 25, 2020) 

California by County every 5 days colored by per capita income	Californa by county every 5 days colored by % Hispanic in county Low<0-33.4%, medium>=33.4%-<37.8%, high>= 37.8%

Observations:

• • Deaths are roughly linear with confirmed cases on a log scale
  • By March 24th the following counties were already observing deaths: Santa Clara (SCL), Riverside (RIV), San Jose (SJ), Sacramento (SAC), LA County, Orange County. 
  • By June 25th:
    • In terms of confirmed cases and deaths per 1 Million county population
      • The leading counties were Lake (LAK), Nevada (NEV), Mono (MNO) with Imperial (IMP) catching up since the end of May. 
      • These are followed by LA County (LA), Orange Country (OR), Kings County (KIN), Tuolumne (TUO) and Riverside (RIV).
    • If one just takes the number of cases (i.e. do not normalize by the population of the county) then:
      • The leading counties are LA County (LA), Orange County (OR), Riverside (RIV), San Diego County (SD) and San Bernadino County (SBD)
    • In general, the counties with lower per capita income appear to have lower numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, The exceptions are Imperial County (IMP), Kern County (KER), Tuolumne County (TUO) and Fremont County (FRE).
  • By July 20:
    • LA county, Orange county (ORA), Lake, Riverside (RIV), San Diego (SD) and San Bernadino (SBD)  counties by July 20 had a clear lead in deaths and confirmed cases. 
    • By this time LA county had almost four times the deaths of the next highest (Orange) county and almost three times the confirmed cases.
    • The following counties still had zero deaths:

• • Imperial county with a population of 177K had 8606 cases and 163 deaths, this compares with El Dorado county with a population of 181K that had 443 cases and 0 deaths. One big difference is the % Hispanic population: 79.6% for Imperial county and 11.8% for El Dorado county.
    The following chart shows the daily confirmed cases per thousand population for a selection of California counties. The predominance of the Imperial (79.6% Hispanic) covid19-california-confirmed-time-series.svgand Kern (54% Hispanic) counties is apparent.
      

  • The following were the leading counties in terms of deaths/population

    County	ID	Confirmed	Deaths	Population	Deaths/population	% Hispanic population
    Riverside	RIV	29983	588	2266899	0.000259	45%
    KIngs	KIN	3398	42	151390	0.000277	50.2%
    Tulare	TUL	6896	167	451108	0.000370	59.8%
    Los Angeles	LA	159045	4104	9974203	0.000411	47.5%
    Imperial	IMP	8606	163	177026	0.000921	79.6%

    It is seen that these leading counties also had large Hispanic populations. Graphs of the ratios confirmed cases/population and deaths/population against the percent of Hispanic population in each California county are shown below, There are seen to be noticeable correlations (R²). The probability of a confirmed case is seen to be two to three times for counties with twice the percentage of Hispanic populations.
    
    

  • Given the "High Mortality from COVID-19 among Asian Americans in San Francisco and California" reported in https://asianarch.org/press_releases/Asian%20COVID-19%20Mortality%20Final.pdf, one would expect to find a strong correlation of deaths/population vs % Asian-American population for California counties. The labels on the charts below are the abbreviations for some of the counties (from https://sv08data.dot.ca.gov/contractcost/map.html). 
    
    

  • The following were the leading counties in terms of deaths/confirmed cases:

    County	ID	Deaths/confirmed %	Population	% Hispanic population
    Inyo	INY	2.5	18439	18.7%
    San Mateo	SM	2.5	739837	24.9%
    Los Angeles	LA	2.58	9974203	47.5%
    Mariposa	MPA	2.63	17946	9.4%
    Yolo	YOL	2.84	204162	29.8%
    Shasta	SHA	2.89	178520	8.3%

  • Top ten California Counties by confirmed cases 7/26/2020
    
    

    County	ID	Population()	confirmed/Pop	deaths/Pop	Pop-Density(pop/sq-km)	Hispanic%
    Imperial	IMP	177026	0.051218	0.001022	42.385	79.6
    Kings	KIN	151390	0.025187	0.00031	108.959	50.2
    Tulare	TUL	451108	0.0182	0.000372	93.509	59.8
    Marin	MRN	256802	0.018006	0.000214	493.556	14.9
    Los Angeles	LA	9974203	0.017447	0.000437	2457.984	47.5
    Kern	KER	857730	0.017081	0.000143	105.477	48.5
    Lassen	LAS	33356	0.016639	0	7.345	17.4
    Stanislaus	STA	522794	0.015037	0.000166	349.735	41.3
    Riverside	RIV	2266899	0.014763	0.000281	314.564	45
    San Joaquin	SJ	701050	0.014444	0.000157	503.874	38.3

    Ten California counties with the least confirmed cases/population 7/26/2020
    
    

    County	ID	Population()	confirmed/Pop	deaths/Pop	Pop-Density(pop/sq-km)	Hispanic%
    Trinity	TRI	13515	0.000222	0	4.251	6.7
    Sierra	SIE	3019	0.000331	0	3.167	7.5
    Siskiyou	SIS	44261	0.001378	0	7.05	10.2
    Plumas	PLU	19286	0.001452	0	7.554	8
    Humboldt	HUM	134876	0.00152	0.00003	37.802	9.6
    Shasta	SHA	178520	0.00163	0.000045	47.285	8.3
    Alpine	ALP	1202	0.001664	0	1.628	7
    Amador	AMA	37159	0.002045	0	62.496	12.2
    Inyo	INY	18439	0.002169	0.000054	1.811	18.7
    Calaveras	CAL	44921	0.002204	0.000022	44.04	10.2

  • California Confirmed cases / day and deaths / day:
    
    

    
    
    

    The ratio of deaths/confirmed was about 2.5% mid April but had dropped to about 1.4% as of 7/26/2020. This may be related to the introduction of more effective treatments for the coronavirus over the past five months and the fact that hospitals are better prepared to handle patients (see https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Why-coronavirus-cases-are-rising-but-deaths-are-15384724.php).

  • California (e.g. see https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/CountyMonitoringDataStep1.aspx) uses a 14-day case rate to determine if it has exceeded some limit (100 per 100,000 population) for each county to determine what activities should be shut down for that county.

  • For California counties, the average number of days from the first recorded confirmed case to the first recorded death was 84+-39 days.

California Prisons

Information about California prisons and Covid-19 is available at: https://www.cdcr.ca.gov/covid19/.

This yields the following table where we have added the California counties information for 7/20/2020.

There appears to be a much higher ratio (~seven times higher) of Confirmed cases to the population for incarcerated people compared to the overall ratio for all California counties and deaths/population being a factor of two higher for Incarcerated compared to the overall California population. On the other hand, the deaths/population is lower for both incarcerated prisoners and the prison staff compared to the overall California population.

California Residential Care Facilities for the Elderly (RCFE)

A possible source is https://www.cdss.ca.gov/Portals/9/Additional-Resources/Research-and-Data/DSSDS/RCFE-7-24.pdf

This provides cases and deaths by County. However, it does not appear to include the resident or staff totals.

One table, dated in a July 16 report, gives: positive cases = 5528 and deaths 575, giving a deaths/cases of 10.4% which is over five times higher than the ratio for California Counties.