Covid-19 - Visualizing the data with Motion Charts

San Francisco Bay counties deaths/confirmed cases 8/25/20 Click on chart for more Information	San Francisco Bay counties smoothed daily cases per million population 8/25/20 Click on chart for more Information	San Francisco Bay counties smoothed daily cases per million population (log10 y scale) 8/25/20 Click on chart for more Information

San Francisco Bay Area counties % daily deaths/confirmed cases 8/10/20 Click on chart for more Information	San Francisco Bay Area counties Cumulative deaths per million population 8/10/20 Click on chart for more Information

San Francisco Bay Area daily confirmed cases / Million population (linear y axis) Click on chart for more Information	San Francisco Bay Area daily confirmed cases per Million population (log10 y axis) Click on chart for more Information

Observations:

• The first confirmed case was in Santa Clara 1/31/20. 
• The first death was also in Santa Clara 3/10/2020.
• The second county to record a confirmed case was San Mateo on 3/16/2020.
• San Mateo took over the lead in cumulative deaths/Million population at the end of March, only to be overtaken by Marin mod July.
• All counties started to reduce the ratio deaths/confirmed cases after 5/5/2020.,
• Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, and Solano continue to reduce the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases.
• There was an uptick in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases in Sonoma starting around 6/29/2020.
• There was an uptick in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases in Marin starting around 7/3/2020.
• There was an uptick in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases in Napa starting around 7/18/2020.
• Marin has recorded the highest daily confirmed cases/Million population. Also see https://abc7news.com/covid-cases-latino-california-coronavirus-marin-county/6329375/. 
• Marin has also recorded the highest cumulative deaths per Million population

California coastal counties confirmed cases 8/13/2020 Click on Chart for more information	California coastal counties cumulative deaths 8/13/2020 Click on Chart for more information

California coastal counties %deaths.confirmed cases 8/13/20 Click on Chart for more information

Observations:

• The firsr confirmed cases were in LA county and Orange counties Jan 26,2020.
• The first death was in LA county Mar 3, 2020.
• As of Aug 13, 2020 LA county (population almost 10 Million) is far and away the leader in confirmed case with 214K cases and 511 deaths. Orange county is next (with a population of just over 3 Million) with 42K  cases.
• If one normalizes by county population, then Santa Barbara takes the lead followed by Orange county and Monterey county.
• For comparison we included San Mateo county one of the Bay Area counties top counties in terms of Covid-19 cases. It is one of the bottom 3 California coastal counties in terms of confirmed cases.
• Looking at the ratio %(deaths/confirmed cases) LA county leads followed by Santa Barbara county, San Mateo county and Orange County

Counties

Click on charts below for more details

Cumulative confirmed cases	Cumulative confirmed cases per million population	Cumulative deaths per million population

% deaths/confirmed cases	Log10(% deaths/confirmed)	daily confirmed cases per million population

Click on the images below to look in more detail and move the mouse over the points for more information

Observations:

• January 30, the first confirmed cases were reported in India (IN), Nepal (NP) and Sri Lanka (LK).
• March 6, Bangladesh (BG) and the Malvinas (MV) reported their first confirmed cases. Bhutan (BT) reported its first confirmed case 2 days before on March 4.
• March 9, India was the first country to report a death. 
• March 13, Pakistan overtakes India in reported confirmed cases. It then stays abreast of India until the end of March.
• March 16 and 17, Bangladesh and Pakistan reported their first deaths. By this time India had reported 4 deaths.
• May 22, after a slow start Bangladesh gets close behind the leaders India and Pakistan.
• By the end of the first week in August looking at the middle chart of daily confirmed cases it is apparent that:
  • Pakistan has passed the peak of daily confirmed cases around 6/13/2020
  • Nepal passed its peak at the end of June, however, the daily cases are starting to increase again
  • Bangladesh reached a peak of about 22 confirmed cases per million population per day at the start on July, since then it has decreased but seems to now be holding steady around 15 cases per Million population per day.
  • Afghanistan reached a peak of about 23 cases/million population/day by the first week in May and by August 8th was down to a couple of cases/million population/day.
  • Cases in India continue to rise daily and by August 8 have reached over 45 cases/million population/day. Bear in mind India's population is approaching  1.4Billion  so 45 cases/Million/population corresponds to about 63 thousand new confirmed cases per day.
  • The net effect on the aggregated cases is seen in the chart on the right which illustrates the exponential growth in confirmed cases for India.
  • The chart below shows the daily deaths per million population. It can be seen that India took the lead in July.
  • Looking at the death/confirmed cases Bangladesh started out with a high ratio As of August 8, 2020 Afghanistan has the highest ratio
    • For Afghanistan also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Afghanistan

 South American Mercosur countries 8/14/2020

The  Mercosur (or Southern Common Market) countries (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercosur)  here include Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile and I have added Venezuela.

Cumulative Confirmed cases per million population	Cumulative Deaths per million population

To assist in showing the deaths for those countries with lower numbers of %(deaths/ million population) we take the log base 10 of the y axis.	Cumulative Deaths/confirmed cases

Daily confirmed cases per million population

Observations:

• Chile recorded its first confirmed case Feb 23, followed by Brazil  on Feb 26.
• Chile and Brazil followed by Argentina lead in terms of both confirmed cases and deaths. 
• For the ratio deaths/confirmed cases Brazil takes the lead followed by a dead heat between Uruguay and Chile followed, in turn, by Argentina.
• In terms of the ratio deaths/confirmed cases:
  •  Brazil, Argentina and Chile passed their peak in the April May time-frame. 
  • Then in June Chile started rising again, passed the first peak and continued rising.
  • Uruguay has remained fairly constant since May.
  • Argentina and Paraguay appear to be seeing an increase again in August.
  • Venezuela appears to have rapidly reduced the ratio and held it steady at about 1% since May. It also appears to have the lowest reported deaths. This is strange given the concerns over the Venezuelan Health care system and the impact of international sanctions (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Venezuela)
• Looking at the daily confirmed cases per million population in Mercosur countries , Chile passed its peak in June. For the other countries, the daily confirmed cases are still increasing or flat.

South American Andean countries 8/14/2020

The sub-regions are roughly from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_Latin_America with Venezuela added.

Covid-19 confirmed cases per million population for South American Andean countries	Covid-19 deaths per million population for South American Andean Countries

Covid-19 cumulative confirmed cases for South American Andean countries	Covid-19 daily confirmed cases for South America Andean countries

Observations:

• The first confirmed case was from Ecuador on Mar 1, followed by both Columbia and Peru on Mar 6. Bolivia was the last country to announce a confirmed case on Mar 11.
• Peru leads in both number of confirmed case, number of confirmed case per million population and deaths per million population.
• Bolivia had the highest per cent deaths per confirmed cases (or Case Fatality Ration - CFR), followed by Bolivia.
• It does not appear that any of the Andean countries have passed the peak of daily confirmed cases.

South America  6/30/2020

The sub-regions are roughly from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_Latin_America.

Deaths vs confirmed	Deaths/K population vs confirmed/K population	Bubble chart of days between first confirmed case and first death

Observations

• Brazil recorded the first confirmed Covid-19 case on February 24.
• Argentina recorded the first death on March 11, 8 days after its first recorded case. At this time it had 31 recorded confirmations.
• Brazil's first recorded death was March 16, by which time it had 372 recorded confirmations.

• In terms of deaths/K population vs confirmed/K population:

  • the leading counties are Chile (CL), Peru (PE), Brazil (EC), and Ecuador (EC).

  • and Venezuela (VE) has the lowest values.

Nordic and Baltic countries 9/20/20

These include the Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. Greenland and the Faroe Islands are not included (they are autonomous countries within the country of Denmark and both have a population of under 60,000).

See https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/sweden-has-less-cases-than-many-european-countries-following-unique-controversial-approach-to-coronavirus/ that discusses Sweden's low key Covid-19 strategy (e.g. not wearing masks) and that "According to the European Center for Disease Control, Sweden has reported 30.3 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, compared with 292.2 in Spain, 172.1 in France, 61.8 in the U.K. and 69.2 in Denmark, all of which imposed strict lockdowns early in the pandemic."

Comparing the Nordic countries per million population it appears the other countries still have a long way to go to catch up in terms of confirmed cases and deaths. 

Nordic and Baltic countries 8/17/20

Confirmed cases	Confirmed cases per million population	Deaths per million population

%(deaths/confirmed cases)	Daily confirmed cases per million population

Observations:

• Finland recorded the first confirmed Covid-19 case 1/29/20, followed by Sweden on 1/31/20.
• Sweeden also recorded the fist death on 3/11/20.
• Sweden stands out as having the highest number of cases as well as the highest deaths per million population (over five times that of the runner-up Denmark) and the deaths/confirmed cases. See for example https://newsroom.uvahealth.com/2020/07/03/covid-19-deaths-in-sweden/ for how this is related to the country's lack of a lockdown.
• Iceland also stands out in the effectiveness in reducing the increase in confirmed cases. For more information on How Iceland beat the Virus see https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus. 
• After Sweden, Iceland has the second-highest confirmed cases/million population.
• On 3/2/20 Latvia was the last country to record a confirmed case and the last country to record a death on 4/13/20.

Western Europe 8/18/20

Cumulative Confirmed cases	Cumulative Confirmed cases per million population	Cumulative deaths per million population

Cumulative %deaths/confirmed cases	Daily confirmed cases per million population

7 day smoothing of daily confirmed cases per million population	7 day smoothing of daily deaths per million population

Observations:

• Spain and the UK lead in numbers of confirmed cases, with Spain having overtaken the UK in the second week of August. Spain and the UK are followed by Italy, France, and Germany.
• When one normalizes the confirmed case by the population then Spain still leads, but now followed by Belgium, the UK, Switzerland, and Italy. Austria and Germany have the lowest values.
• In terms of deaths per million population, Belgium leads followed by the trio of Spain, the UK, and Italy. Germany and Austria have the lowest values, about 10 times lower than Belgium.
• For all countries, there was an initial peak in daily confirmed deaths starting the 4th week in March and ending the 3rd week of April. There is a further rise starting in the 4th week in July.
• The ratio of deaths/confirmed cases for all countries except Italy peaked in May. Italy peak a month later. The ratio has continued to reduce for all countries since then. Belgium, France, and Spain saw a large decrease starting in August.
• in the 4th week of July the daily confirmed cases see an increase for all countries.  Since then Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France are taking the lead.

South East Europe 8/18/20

Cumulative confirmed cases	Cumulative confirmed cases per million population	Cumulative deaths per million population

Cumulative %deaths/confirmed cases	Daily confirmed cases per million population

Due to time-out problems with the www.charte.ca app, we had to reduce the number of countries we included in South East Europe.  The reductions included removing Cyprus and Montenegro in turn.

Observations:

• The first countries to report a confirmed case were Croatia (2/25/20) followed by Greece and Macedonia (both on 2/26/20).
• The first countries to report a death were Greece and Albania (both 3/11/20).
• Serbia took the lead in confirmed cases in the first week of April and has held it ever since. Serbia is followed by Bosnia Herzegovina and  Macedonia with less than half the number of confirmed cases. With about half the number of cases again come: Albania, Greece, and Croatia. Cyprus has the smallest number of confirmed cases.
• Between April and June Slovenia, Montenegro, Albania, and Croatia flattened their curves (also see https://emerging-europe.com/from-the-editor/nobodys-talking-about-south-east-europes-success-at-containing-coronavirus-anymore/). All are now trending upwards with Montenegro, Boznia Herzegovina, Serbia and Albania leading the charge (also see  https://balkaninsight.com/2020/08/03/europes-southeast-grapples-with-covid-19-resurgence/)
• If we normalize by taking the number of confirmed cases per million population, then Montenegro and Macedonia are the leaders. They are followed by Boznia Montenegro, Serbia, and Albania. Greece has the lowest value.
• Albania and Serbia both peaked in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases at the end of March/early April. Slovenia, Boznia Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Croatia all peaked in May-June.
• Overall Serbia appears to have managed to maintain the lowest deaths/confirmed cases since the 3rd week in March. Just recently Croatia is has achieved similar ratios.
• Bosnia Herzegovina and Serbia currently (8/18/20) have the highest daily confirmed cases. Slovenia, Croatia, and Greece have the lowest daily cases.

Eastern Europe 8/21/20

Our definition includes: Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Switserland. We do not include Liechensten with a population of 38,000.

Cumulative confirmed cases	Cumulative confirmed cases per million population	Cumulative deaths per million population

Cumulative % deaths/confirmed cases	7 day smoothed daily confirmed cases per million population	7 day smoothed daily deaths per million population

Observations:

• On 2/25/20 Austria and Switzerland were the first two E European countries to record a confirmed case.
• On 3/5/20 Swizerland announced its first Covid-19 death.
• Switzerland and Austria took the lead in confirmed cases early on.
• Poland and Romania have continued to increase the confirmed cases while the other countries remained fairly steady in the cumulative cases until July.
• Austria was overtaken by  Poland and Romania in the second week of May.
• Switzerland held the lead in confirmed cases until mid June, when it was overtaken by Poland.
• Poland, in turn, was overtaken by Romania towards the end of June.
• Starting in July Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria noticeably started to increase their cumulative confirmed cases.
• When one takes the cumulative confirmed cases per million population Switzerland and Austria maintain their lead until the last week of July when Austria is overtaken by Romania.
• Slovakia and Hungary appear to have been the most successful in flattening the curve of confirmed cases per million population.
• In terms of deaths per million population, Switzerland leads with over 220 cases/million population. Romania is in second place and catching up since the cumulative deaths for Switzerland are pretty flat while Romania's are increasing.
• Bulgaria and Poland also have cumulative deaths which are noticeably climbing.
• The ratio of deaths/confirmed cases has peaked for all countries and is in a downward trend,
• The daily confirmed cases for all countries peaked beween March 20 and April 20, wuth Switzerland having the highest confirmed cases/million population followed by Austria.
• After a lull in daily confirmed cases they started to rise again in June for all countries, most noteceably for Romania and Bulgaria.
• A similar chart (though with much lower absolute values) is seen for the daily deaths, though only Romania and Bulgaria appear to have the increase in July August.

More information:

• Austria see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Austria
• Bulgaria see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Bulgaria
• Czech Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_Czech_Republic
• Hungary see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Hungary
• Romania see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Romania
• Slovakia see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Slovakia
• Switzerland see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Switzerland

Charts of deaths and confirmed cases for European countries by sub-regions Feb-Jun 2020

Observations:

• Italy (IT) reported its first deaths on February 20. At this time it reported 62 confirmed cases.
• France (FR) was the next country to announce deaths on February 24. At this time France reported 24 confirmed cases, and Italy reported 453 confirmed cases and 12 deaths.
• On March 2, Spain was the 3rd European country to report deaths, at this time Spain (ES) reported 22 confirmed cases, Italy reported 107 deaths and 3059 confirmed cases and France reported 4 deaths and 288 confirmed cases.
• Germany (DE) and Iceland (IS) lagged behind other countries in terms of deaths/confirmed cases.
• Italy and Spain then took the lead and maintained it until the third week of April. By this time, France and the UK (UK) had caught up Italy and Spain and on April 24, the four countries were reporting: 

• Iceland (IS) succeeded in halting the rise in deaths and confirmed cases on April 21.
• From mid May onwards Byelorussia 's (BY) deaths/confirmed cases were lower than other countries (excluding Iceland and the Netherlands).
• By the beginning of June, Russia (RU), Germany(DE)  and Turkey (TR) had pretty much caught up with Italy, Spain, France and the UK in terms of confirmed cases.
• The Scandinavian countries (Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), Sweden (SE)), Latvia and Germany (DE) appear to lead the way in the number of confirmed cases when the first death occurs.
• By the first week of July: 
  • In terms of deaths/confirmed cases: Belgium (BE) leads the way with 16%, followed by in turn France (FR) 15%, the United Kingdom (UK) 15%, Italy (IT) 14%, Hungary (Hu) 14%) and Spain (ES) 11%. All except Belgium have a population of over 40M.