Contents
Introduction
This is an attempt to use motion charts to visualize the daily growth, since January 2020, in US Covid-19 cases (confirmed and deaths) by State and by California county showing the population by bubble size and color by median age, education or income.
The visualization tool is https://www.charte.ca/, a Motion graphics chart tool. In particular, we use it to visualize the growth in time of Covid-19 cases, using the bubble size for population or population density and colors for education, age, political leaning, income etc.
In particular, try out the motion charts in the Results section below. There is a slider at the bottom of each chart to move backward and forward in time, and one can move the mouse over a bubble to find more details.
Method
The Covid-19 statistics are from the Johns Hopkins University (JHU). There are raw data for confirmed cases and deaths by date for each county in each US state. For the US state analysis, the data from the counties are aggregated into the values for each state.
For each state or California county, we extracted various demographics including the ISO 2 character label, population, area, population density, education, income, median age, political leaning. The demographics were obtained from the following sources for the US.
A Perl script covid-us.pl was developed to gather the above information and cast it in a suitable form for the www.charte.ca motion charts and correlation data. See:
- here for an example of the output of covid-us.pl for California counties
- or here for the US.
- here for the visualization tool https://www.charte.ca/
- here for the actual motion charts
The script also ranks the age, income, and education demographics for each state or county into low, medium, or high based on their tertiles. This is so these demographics can be used with charte.ca's grouping feature.
I many cases we divide the demographic (e.g. per capita income) into 3 colors representing the tertile (red for low, yellow for medium and blue for high). The key is displayed above the chart.
Results
N.b. I am having problems with using www.charte.ca as one increases the number of Excel lines of data beyond around 2500. It often times-out after several minutes and asks if I wish to continue to wait, this may happen several times and there appears to be no guarantee it will finally provide a result, instead basically locking up and requiring re-logging into www.charte.ca. This is the reason the data is sometimes divided by Jan-Apr and May-Jun, and we only look at the data for each of every few (e.g.5) days.
United States
US States time series plots of Covid-19 cases, May-June
- time series plot of the US Confirmed cases by state on a log scale.
- percent deaths/confirmed cases by state as a function of date:
US States Motion Charts of Covid-19 deaths vs confirmed cases
Cumulative:
- cases with bubbles sized by US state population and colored by per capita income (Jan 28, 2020 - Apr 28, 2000)
- cases per million population with bubbles sized by US state population (May 1, 2020 - Jun 22, 2020)
- cases per million population with bubbles sized by US state population and colored by per capita income (May 1, 2020, Jun 25, 2020)
- cases with bubbles sized by population density of state and colored by per capita income (May 1 2020 - Jun 26, 2020)
- March 1, 2020 - July 20, 2020
Daily:
- daily cases per million population with bubbles sized by US state population and colored by per capita income (May 1, 2020, Jun 26, 2020)
- cases with bubbles sized by US state population and colored by per capita income (May 1, 2020, Jun 26, 2020)
Observations
- Looking at the total deaths vs cases it is seen that New York (NY), Delaware (DE), Massachusetts (MA), Rhode Island (RI) and Connecticut (CT) lead the pack followed by Maryland (MD), Illinois (IL) and more recently Louisiana (LA) but other states are catching up.
- It is a similar situation when one normalizes the states by their populations.
- When one looks at the new daily confirmed cases/Million state population and deaths/Million state population it is seen to be very variable day-to-day.
- Arizona's increased confirmed cases pulled it away from the pack starting May 14, 2020, and Florida pulled away starting May 24, 2020
- The values of new Confirmed cases/day/Million State population appears to decrease as one moves forward in time beyond May 23 but then to increase again (driven by Arizona) starting June 14, 2020. Maybe this is part of the "opening".
- Comparing the above with the same data but not normalized by state population
- At the start of May there is a noticeable correlation between deaths and confirmed, by the end of June the correlation is much weaker
- At the start of May the deaths and confirmed is dominated by New York (NY), New Jersey (NJ), Illinois (IL), Massachusetts (MA), California (CA) and Maryland (MD). By the end of June California (CA)is still a leader joined by Texas (TX), Florida (FL), Arizona (AZ), and Georgia (GA).
- Looking at the cases with bubbles sized by population density:
- Some states with high population densities such as New York (NY), New Jersey (NJ) and Massachusetts (MA) have high numbers of confirmed cases while others such as Washington DC, Rhode Island (RI), Delaware (DE) have fairly low numbers of confirmed cases.
- In general, the deaths/confirmed cases appear to be falling with time for especially as we get into June. This may be a mixture of increased testing finding more cases as well as more effective treatment.
- Exceptions that are still increasing include: NJ, MA, PA, CT, SD, NH, IL.
- Jul 22 California passes New York in number of confirmed cases (California population ~ 39M, New York population 20M), New York still has roughly four times California's deaths.
Looking at the July 24, 2020 JHU data there is a strong correlation between the total Confirmed case/state population and the % Hispanic + Black of the state's population.
Confirmed cases/population vs % Hispanic & Black (bubble sizes proportional to state's population) Deaths/population vs % Hispanic + Black (bubble sizes proportional to state's population)
California
Demographics by California county
For each California county, we extracted various demographics including: population, area, population density, education, income, median age, political leaning, ethnicity. The demographics were obtained from the following sources.
Map of counties and a map of regions see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_Californiaa
California Counties Covid-19 San Francisco Bay Area confirmed cases and deaths
Observations:
- The first confirmed case was in Santa Clara 1/31/20.
- The first death was also in Santa Clara 3/10/2020.
- The second county to record a confirmed case was San Mateo on 3/16/2020.
- San Mateo took over the lead in cumulative deaths/Million population at the end of March, only to be overtaken by Marin mod July.
- All counties started to reduce the ratio deaths/confirmed cases after 5/5/2020.,
- Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, and Solano continue to reduce the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases.
- There was an uptick in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases in Sonoma starting around 6/29/2020.
- There was an uptick in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases in Marin starting around 7/3/2020.
- There was an uptick in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases in Napa starting around 7/18/2020.
- Marin has recorded the highest daily confirmed cases/Million population. Also see https://abc7news.com/covid-cases-latino-california-coronavirus-marin-county/6329375/.
- Marin has also recorded the highest cumulative deaths per Million population
California Covid-19 for coastal counties from San Mateo southwards
California coastal counties confirmed cases 8/13/2020 Click on Chart for more information | California coastal counties cumulative deaths 8/13/2020 Click on Chart for more information |
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Observations:
- The firsr confirmed cases were in LA county and Orange counties Jan 26,2020.
- The first death was in LA county Mar 3, 2020.
- As of Aug 13, 2020 LA county (population almost 10 Million) is far and away the leader in confirmed case with 214K cases and 511 deaths. Orange county is next (with a population of just over 3 Million) with 42K cases.
- If one normalizes by county population, then Santa Barbara takes the lead followed by Orange county and Monterey county.
- For comparison we included San Mateo county one of the Bay Area counties top counties in terms of Covid-19 cases. It is one of the bottom 3 California coastal counties in terms of confirmed cases.
- Looking at the ratio %(deaths/confirmed cases) LA county leads followed by Santa Barbara county, San Mateo county and Orange County
California Sierra-Nevada counties
Counties
Name | ID | Population | 1st confirmed case | 1st deaths | by 8/25/20 confirmed cases | by 8/25/20 deaths |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alpine | ALP | 1,202 | 4/1/20 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Calaveras | CAL | 44.291 | 3/11/20 | 7/21/20 | 197 | 2 |
El Dorado | ED | 181,465 | 3/23/20 | 7/21/20 | 924 | 2 |
Mariposa | MPA | 17,946 | 4/25/20 | 5/15/20 | 70 | 8 |
Mono | MNO | 14,193 | 3/21/20 | 4/11/20 | 162 | 8 |
Nevada | NEV | 398,606 | 5/22/20 | 4/4/20 | 423 | 3 |
Placer | PLA | 361,518 | 3/2/20 | 3/4/20 | 2823 | 328 |
Sierra | SIE | 3,019 | 5/22/20 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Click on charts below for more details
California June 2020
bubbles sized by population density for CA Counties and colored by per capita income (Jan 25, 2020 - Apr 30, 2020)
cases per million population with bubbles sized by CA county population and colored by per capita income (May 1, 2020 - Jun 25, 2020)
California by County every 5 days colored by per capita income | Californa by county every 5 days colored by % Hispanic in county Low<0-33.4%, medium>=33.4%-<37.8%, high>= 37.8% |
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Observations:
- Deaths are roughly linear with confirmed cases on a log scale
- By March 24th the following counties were already observing deaths: Santa Clara (SCL), Riverside (RIV), San Jose (SJ), Sacramento (SAC), LA County, Orange County.
- By June 25th:
- In terms of confirmed cases and deaths per 1 Million county population
- The leading counties were Lake (LAK), Nevada (NEV), Mono (MNO) with Imperial (IMP) catching up since the end of May.
- These are followed by LA County (LA), Orange Country (OR), Kings County (KIN), Tuolumne (TUO) and Riverside (RIV).
- If one just takes the number of cases (i.e. do not normalize by the population of the county) then:
- The leading counties are LA County (LA), Orange County (OR), Riverside (RIV), San Diego County (SD) and San Bernadino County (SBD)
- In general, the counties with lower per capita income appear to have lower numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, The exceptions are Imperial County (IMP), Kern County (KER), Tuolumne County (TUO) and Fremont County (FRE).
- In terms of confirmed cases and deaths per 1 Million county population
- By July 20:
- LA county, Orange county (ORA), Lake, Riverside (RIV), San Diego (SD) and San Bernadino (SBD) counties by July 20 had a clear lead in deaths and confirmed cases.
- By this time LA county had almost four times the deaths of the next highest (Orange) county and almost three times the confirmed cases.
- The following counties still had zero deaths:
County | ID | Covid-19 confirmed | deaths | Population() | %Hispanic Population |
Alpine | ALP | 2 | 0 | 1202 | 7% |
Amador | AMA | 57 | 0 | 37159 | 12.2% |
Calaveras | CAL | 87 | 0 | 44921 | 10.2% |
Colusa | COL | 223 | 0 | 21424 | 53.8% |
El Dorado | ED | 443 | 0 | 181465 | 11.8% |
Lassen | LAS | 512 | 0 | 33356 | 17.4% |
Plumas | PLU | 24 | 0 | 19286 | 8% |
Sierra | SIE | 22 | 0 | 3019 | 7.5% |
Siskiyou | SIS | 50 | 0 | 44261 | 10.2% |
Trinity | TRI | 104 | 0 | 13515 | 6.7% |
Tuolumne | TUO | 101 | 0 | 54347 | 10.5% |
- Imperial county with a population of 177K had 8606 cases and 163 deaths, this compares with El Dorado county with a population of 181K that had 443 cases and 0 deaths. One big difference is the % Hispanic population: 79.6% for Imperial county and 11.8% for El Dorado county.
The following chart shows the daily confirmed cases per thousand population for a selection of California counties. The predominance of the Imperial (79.6% Hispanic) covid19-california-confirmed-time-series.svgand Kern (54% Hispanic) counties is apparent.
The following were the leading counties in terms of deaths/population
County ID Confirmed Deaths Population Deaths/population % Hispanic population Riverside RIV 29983 588 2266899 0.000259 45% KIngs KIN 3398 42 151390 0.000277 50.2% Tulare TUL 6896 167 451108 0.000370 59.8% Los Angeles LA 159045 4104 9974203 0.000411 47.5% Imperial IMP 8606 163 177026 0.000921 79.6% It is seen that these leading counties also had large Hispanic populations. Graphs of the ratios confirmed cases/population and deaths/population against the percent of Hispanic population in each California county are shown below, There are seen to be noticeable correlations (R2). The probability of a confirmed case is seen to be two to three times for counties with twice the percentage of Hispanic populations.
Given the "High Mortality from COVID-19 among Asian Americans in San Francisco and California" reported in https://asianarch.org/press_releases/Asian%20COVID-19%20Mortality%20Final.pdf, one would expect to find a strong correlation of deaths/population vs % Asian-American population for California counties. The labels on the charts below are the abbreviations for some of the counties (from https://sv08data.dot.ca.gov/contractcost/map.html).
The following were the leading counties in terms of deaths/confirmed cases:
County ID Deaths/confirmed % Population % Hispanic population Inyo INY 2.5 18439 18.7% San Mateo SM 2.5 739837 24.9% Los Angeles LA 2.58 9974203 47.5% Mariposa MPA 2.63 17946 9.4% Yolo YOL 2.84 204162 29.8% Shasta SHA 2.89 178520 8.3% Top ten California Counties by confirmed cases 7/26/2020
County ID Population() confirmed/Pop deaths/Pop Pop-Density(pop/sq-km) Hispanic% Imperial IMP 177026 0.051218 0.001022 42.385 79.6 Kings KIN 151390 0.025187 0.00031 108.959 50.2 Tulare TUL 451108 0.0182 0.000372 93.509 59.8 Marin MRN 256802 0.018006 0.000214 493.556 14.9 Los Angeles LA 9974203 0.017447 0.000437 2457.984 47.5 Kern KER 857730 0.017081 0.000143 105.477 48.5 Lassen LAS 33356 0.016639 0 7.345 17.4 Stanislaus STA 522794 0.015037 0.000166 349.735 41.3 Riverside RIV 2266899 0.014763 0.000281 314.564 45 San Joaquin SJ 701050 0.014444 0.000157 503.874 38.3 Ten California counties with the least confirmed cases/population 7/26/2020
County ID Population() confirmed/Pop deaths/Pop Pop-Density(pop/sq-km) Hispanic% Trinity TRI 13515 0.000222 0 4.251 6.7 Sierra SIE 3019 0.000331 0 3.167 7.5 Siskiyou SIS 44261 0.001378 0 7.05 10.2 Plumas PLU 19286 0.001452 0 7.554 8 Humboldt HUM 134876 0.00152 0.00003 37.802 9.6 Shasta SHA 178520 0.00163 0.000045 47.285 8.3 Alpine ALP 1202 0.001664 0 1.628 7 Amador AMA 37159 0.002045 0 62.496 12.2 Inyo INY 18439 0.002169 0.000054 1.811 18.7 Calaveras CAL 44921 0.002204 0.000022 44.04 10.2 California Confirmed cases / day and deaths / day:
The ratio of deaths/confirmed was about 2.5% mid April but had dropped to about 1.4% as of 7/26/2020. This may be related to the introduction of more effective treatments for the coronavirus over the past five months and the fact that hospitals are better prepared to handle patients (see https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/article/Why-coronavirus-cases-are-rising-but-deaths-are-15384724.php).
California (e.g. see https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/CountyMonitoringDataStep1.aspx) uses a 14-day case rate to determine if it has exceeded some limit (100 per 100,000 population) for each county to determine what activities should be shut down for that county.
For California counties, the average number of days from the first recorded confirmed case to the first recorded death was 84+-39 days.
- Imperial county with a population of 177K had 8606 cases and 163 deaths, this compares with El Dorado county with a population of 181K that had 443 cases and 0 deaths. One big difference is the % Hispanic population: 79.6% for Imperial county and 11.8% for El Dorado county.
California Prisons
Information about California prisons and Covid-19 is available at: https://www.cdcr.ca.gov/covid19/.
This yields the following table where we have added the California counties information for 7/20/2020.
Population | Confirmed | Deaths | Deaths/Confirmed | Confirmed/Pop | Deaths/pop | |
Incarcerated | 101,851 | 7549 | 44 | 0.58% | 7.41% | 0.04% |
staff | 1544 | 3 | 0.19% | |||
California Counties | 38057585 | 397870 | 7770 | 1.95% | 1.045% | 0.020% |
There appears to be a much higher ratio (~seven times higher) of Confirmed cases to the population for incarcerated people compared to the overall ratio for all California counties and deaths/population being a factor of two higher for Incarcerated compared to the overall California population. On the other hand, the deaths/population is lower for both incarcerated prisoners and the prison staff compared to the overall California population.
California Residential Care Facilities for the Elderly (RCFE)
A possible source is https://www.cdss.ca.gov/Portals/9/Additional-Resources/Research-and-Data/DSSDS/RCFE-7-24.pdf
This provides cases and deaths by County. However, it does not appear to include the resident or staff totals.
One table, dated in a July 16 report, gives: positive cases = 5528 and deaths 575, giving a deaths/cases of 10.4% which is over five times higher than the ratio for California Counties.
Visualizing countries with larger populations|
Chart of deaths versus confirmed cases for countries with at least 50M population.
January thru July deaths vs confirmed cases | January thru July deaths/population vs confirmed cases/population | January thru July Deaths/population density vs confirmed cases/population density |
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For more details on the US see Covid-19 - Visualizing the data with Motion Charts.
Observations:
- China starts much earlier than any other country.
- The first country to record a death after China (cn) is Japan (jp) on Feb 11, followed by Iran (ir) on Feb 17.
- By the 4th week of February, South Korea (kr) and Japan (jp) countries close to Japan, together with Iran (ir) and Italy (it) had taken the lead in deaths.
- By the start of Apr: Italy (it), Spain (es), the UK (uk), France (fr) and Iran (ir) had overtaken China in number of deaths and Germany (de) and Turkey (tr) were catching up.
- By the start of May: the US, Italy, France and the UK are clear leaders in terms of deaths, and Turkey (tr), Russia (ru), India (in) and Peru (pe) were close behind China in terms of deaths.
- At that time, the US had over 6 times the confirmed cases of the second place UK, and well over two times the deaths.
- It is noticeable that from Mar thru Jun Japan (jp), South Korea (kr) and Malaysia appear to have slowed the growth and are passed by many other countries.
- By Jul 17th, Brazil (br) was closing in on the US with both of Brazil's confirmed cases and deaths within a factor of two of the US.
- On July 18, concerning the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases, the lowest value was for Vietnam (0 deaths in 382 confirmed cases), followed by Bangladesh (1.3%), South Africa (1.5%) and Russia (1.6%). The highest ratio was for the UK (15.3%).
Chart of deaths versus confirmed cases for countries with other population ranges
Visualizing Africa, Asia, Europe and South America
Chart of deaths and confirmed cases for African countries by sub-regions Feb-Jun 2020
Motion chart of deaths vs confirmed | Bubble chart of days between first confirmed case and first death | Bubble chart of deaths/confirmed vs population density | Bubble chart of deaths/confirmed vs confirmed |
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Click on the chart to see the motion of the Covid cases with time | Click on the chart for more details | Click on the chart for more details | Click on the chart for more details |
The sub-regions are from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_Africa
Observations:
- The first Africa countries to report confirmed cases, in late February and early March, were the North African countries Algeria (DZ) and Egypt (EG)
- Egypt reported the first African country death on March 6th
- By March 18 Algeria, Egypt, Morocco (MA)and Tunisia (TN) all had reported deaths
- By March 22, South Africa (ZA) had reported over 550 confirmed cases, more cases than any other African country.
- The first West African country to report a death was Burkina Faso (BF) that reported 2 deaths on March 19th. By this time Algeria had reported 15 deaths.
- By April 1, the four North African countries Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia each reported more deaths than any other African country.
- By mid April:
- several West African countries were following North African countries and South Africa's lead.
- Cameroon (CM), although being listed in the Mid African sub-region was behaving more like a West African region country.
- By the end of May several east African countries had a similar number of case that West Africa had the month before.
- By the end of June
- South Africa had by far the most confirmed cases (over 138K), the next highest confirmed cases was Egypt (EG) with 76K confirmed cases, followed by Niger (NE) with 30K confirmed cases and Nigeria (NG) with 29K cases..
- Egypt had the most deaths (over 2400)
- The following reported no deaths but had confirmed cases: Lesotho (LS) had over 90 confirmed cases, Namibia (NA) had over 480 confirmed cases, Seychelles (SC) had over 80 confirmed cases, and Uganda (UG) had over 850 confirmed cases.
- South Africa (ZA) stands out as having the most confirmed cases (1170) when it reported its first death
- Rwanda (RW) had the most days (77) between when it reported its first confirmed case and the first death. It is followed by the Central African Republic (CF), Mozambique(MZ), and Madagascar (MG)
Charts of deaths and confirmed cases for Asian countries by sub-regions Feb-Jun 2020
The sub-regions are from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Asia
Central Asia and Russia
Click on the chart to view the full motion chart.
Observations:
- Russia was the first country to report a confirmed case on Feb 1.
- Mongolia was the second Central Asia country to report a confirmed case on Mar 10, when Russia reported 20 confirmed cases and no deaths.
- This was followed on Mar 11 when Kazakhstan announced 4 confirmed cases. At this time Russia reported 45 confirmed cases and Mongolia was still reporting a single confirmed case. neither were reporting any deaths.
- The last Central Asian countries to announce confirmed cases were Uzbekistan on Mar 13 and Tajikistan on Mar 16
- On Mar 23 Russia announced its first deaths, followed by Uzbekistan on Mar 26.
- By Jul 1, Russia led the way with 9844 deaths and 66,6941 confirmed cases, followed by Kazakstan with 188 deaths and 45,717 confirmed cases. Mongolia had the lowest score with 0 deaths and 220 confirmed cases.
East Asia
Observations:
- At the end of January (January 31st), China (CN) reported a sum of 11,891 confirmed cases and 259 deaths, Hong Kong (HK) reported 7,496 cases and 13 deaths, and Japan reported 20 cases and 0 deaths.
- From Mar 11 through mid June 16 the sum of confirmed cases for Hong Kong went from 134 to 1120 while the sum of deaths stayed at 4.
- On March 16 the sum of confirmed cases for china was 81,201 with 3241 deaths. After just under a month, on April 14 this went to 83,403 confirmed cases and 3346 deaths or 114 more deaths since March 16. Then on March 17, a day later the confirmed cases went to 83,760 and 4636 deaths, or an increase of 290 deaths in 1 day.
- By July 2 Hong Kong reported a sum of 1258 confirmed cases and 7 deaths.
South Asia
Click on the images below to look in more detail and move the mouse over the points for more information | |
Observations:
- January 30, the first confirmed cases were reported in India (IN), Nepal (NP) and Sri Lanka (LK).
- March 6, Bangladesh (BG) and the Malvinas (MV) reported their first confirmed cases. Bhutan (BT) reported its first confirmed case 2 days before on March 4.
- March 9, India was the first country to report a death.
- March 13, Pakistan overtakes India in reported confirmed cases. It then stays abreast of India until the end of March.
- March 16 and 17, Bangladesh and Pakistan reported their first deaths. By this time India had reported 4 deaths.
- May 22, after a slow start Bangladesh gets close behind the leaders India and Pakistan.
- By the end of the first week in August looking at the middle chart of daily confirmed cases it is apparent that:
- Pakistan has passed the peak of daily confirmed cases around 6/13/2020
- Nepal passed its peak at the end of June, however, the daily cases are starting to increase again
- Bangladesh reached a peak of about 22 confirmed cases per million population per day at the start on July, since then it has decreased but seems to now be holding steady around 15 cases per Million population per day.
- Afghanistan reached a peak of about 23 cases/million population/day by the first week in May and by August 8th was down to a couple of cases/million population/day.
- Cases in India continue to rise daily and by August 8 have reached over 45 cases/million population/day. Bear in mind India's population is approaching 1.4Billion so 45 cases/Million/population corresponds to about 63 thousand new confirmed cases per day.
- The net effect on the aggregated cases is seen in the chart on the right which illustrates the exponential growth in confirmed cases for India.
- The chart below shows the daily deaths per million population. It can be seen that India took the lead in July.
- Looking at the death/confirmed cases Bangladesh started out with a high ratio As of August 8, 2020 Afghanistan has the highest ratio
- For Afghanistan also see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Afghanistan
South East Asia
Observations:
- Singapore (SG) reports very low deaths compared to confirmed cases.
West Asia
Observations:
- The Arab Emirates (AE) was the first West Asian country to report a confirmed case on January 30.
- Iran (IR) was the first West Asian country to report a death on February 17 when it reported its first 2 deaths AND its first 2 confirmed cases on the same day. On this date, the Arab Emirates was the only other West Asian country reporting cases, and it reported an accumulated total of 19 confirmed cases and no deaths.
- On March 13, Iraq (IQ) was the second West Asian country to report a death when it reported 2 deaths. By this date Kuwait, (KW), Bahrein (BH), Israel (IL), Oman (OM), Jordan (JO) and Saudia Arabia (SA) had also reported confirmed cases. Also Iran had reported an accumulated sum of 2,922 confirmed cases and 92 deaths, while the Arab Emirates reported 27 confirmed cases and zero deaths.
- On April 8th, Yemen (YE) was the last West Asian country to report a confirmed case. On this date the leading West Asian countries were Iran which reported an accumulated 68,192 confirmed cases and 4,232 deaths while Turkey reported an accumulated 47,029 confirmed cases and 1,006 deaths.
- On June 30, the leading West Asian countries in terms of reported deaths were Iran, Turkey, Iraq and Saudia Arabia. Yemen as reporting an unusually high number of deaths (325) compared to the number of confirmed cases (1,221). On the other hand, the reverse was true for Qatar (QA) with only 118 deaths for 97,897 confirmed cases.
- Saudia Arabia (SA), Israel (IL), followed by Qatar (QA) and Kuwait (KW) have the highest numbers of confirmed cases when the first death was reported.
- The Arab Emirates (EM), Kuwait and Oman lead the way for number of days between the first confirmed case and the first death.
- Yemen stands out with the highest deaths/confirmed cases to confirmed cases.
- Qatar (QA) has the lowest deaths/confirmed cases = 0.13%, follwed by Bahrein (BH) with 0.33%.
Charts of deaths and confirmed cases for South American countries by sub-regions Feb-Jun 2020
South American Mercosur countries 8/14/2020
The Mercosur (or Southern Common Market) countries (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercosur) here include Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile and I have added Venezuela.
To assist in showing the deaths for those countries with lower numbers of %(deaths/ million population) we take the log base 10 of the y axis. | Cumulative Deaths/confirmed cases |
Observations:
- Chile recorded its first confirmed case Feb 23, followed by Brazil on Feb 26.
- Chile and Brazil followed by Argentina lead in terms of both confirmed cases and deaths.
- For the ratio deaths/confirmed cases Brazil takes the lead followed by a dead heat between Uruguay and Chile followed, in turn, by Argentina.
- In terms of the ratio deaths/confirmed cases:
- Brazil, Argentina and Chile passed their peak in the April May time-frame.
- Then in June Chile started rising again, passed the first peak and continued rising.
- Uruguay has remained fairly constant since May.
- Argentina and Paraguay appear to be seeing an increase again in August.
- Venezuela appears to have rapidly reduced the ratio and held it steady at about 1% since May. It also appears to have the lowest reported deaths. This is strange given the concerns over the Venezuelan Health care system and the impact of international sanctions (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Venezuela)
- Looking at the daily confirmed cases per million population in Mercosur countries , Chile passed its peak in June. For the other countries, the daily confirmed cases are still increasing or flat.
South American Andean countries 8/14/2020
The sub-regions are roughly from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_Latin_America with Venezuela added.
Covid-19 confirmed cases per million population for South American Andean countries | Covid-19 deaths per million population for South American Andean Countries |
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Covid-19 cumulative confirmed cases for South American Andean countries | Covid-19 daily confirmed cases for South America Andean countries |
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Observations:
- The first confirmed case was from Ecuador on Mar 1, followed by both Columbia and Peru on Mar 6. Bolivia was the last country to announce a confirmed case on Mar 11.
- Peru leads in both number of confirmed case, number of confirmed case per million population and deaths per million population.
- Bolivia had the highest per cent deaths per confirmed cases (or Case Fatality Ration - CFR), followed by Bolivia.
- It does not appear that any of the Andean countries have passed the peak of daily confirmed cases.
South America 6/30/2020
The sub-regions are roughly from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_Latin_America.
Deaths vs confirmed | Deaths/K population vs confirmed/K population | Bubble chart of days between first confirmed case and first death |
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Observations
- Brazil recorded the first confirmed Covid-19 case on February 24.
- Argentina recorded the first death on March 11, 8 days after its first recorded case. At this time it had 31 recorded confirmations.
- Brazil's first recorded death was March 16, by which time it had 372 recorded confirmations.
In terms of deaths/K population vs confirmed/K population:
the leading counties are Chile (CL), Peru (PE), Brazil (EC), and Ecuador (EC).
- and Venezuela (VE) has the lowest values.
The sub-regions are roughly from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_Latin_America.
Deaths vs confirmed | Deaths/K population vs confirmed/K population | Bubble chart of days between first confirmed case and first death |
---|---|---|
Observations
- Brazil recorded the first confirmed Covid-19 case on February 24.
- Argentina recorded the first death on March 11, 8 days after its first recorded case. At this time it had 31 recorded confirmations.
- Brazil's first recorded death was March 16, by which time it had 372 recorded confirmations.
In terms of deaths/K population vs confirmed/K population:
the leading counties are Chile (CL), Peru (PE), Brazil (EC), and Ecuador (EC).
- and Venezuela (VE) has the lowest values.
Charts of deaths and confirmed cases for European countries
Nordic and Baltic countries 9/20/20
These include the Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. Greenland and the Faroe Islands are not included (they are autonomous countries within the country of Denmark and both have a population of under 60,000).
State | ID | Population (K) | Income per capita ($) | Area(sq km) | Median Age (yrs) | Pop-Density (Kpop/sq-km) |
Denmark | dk | 5792.202 | 54356 | 43094 | 42.299999 | 0.134 |
Estonia | ee | 1326.535 | 33448 | 45227 | 42.700001 | 0.029 |
Finland | fi | 5540.72 | 46344 | 338424 | 42.799999 | 0.016 |
Iceland | is | 341.243 | 55322 | 103000 | 37.299999 | 0.003 |
Latvia | lv | 1886.198 | 28362 | 64559 | 43.900002 | 0.029 |
Lithuania | lt | 2722.289 | 33253 | 65300 | 43.5 | 0.042 |
Norway | no | 5421.241 | 62183 | 323802 | 39.700001 | 0.017 |
Sweden | se | 10099.265 | 51405 | 450295 | 41 | 0.022 |
See https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/sweden-has-less-cases-than-many-european-countries-following-unique-controversial-approach-to-coronavirus/ that discusses Sweden's low key Covid-19 strategy (e.g. not wearing masks) and that "According to the European Center for Disease Control, Sweden has reported 30.3 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, compared with 292.2 in Spain, 172.1 in France, 61.8 in the U.K. and 69.2 in Denmark, all of which imposed strict lockdowns early in the pandemic."
Comparing the Nordic countries per million population it appears the other countries still have a long way to go to catch up in terms of confirmed cases and deaths.
Covid-19 Confirmed cases per million population | Covid-19 Deaths per million population |
---|---|
Covid-19 Log base 10 (confirmed cases/million population) |
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Covid-19 Smoothed daily confirmed cases/million population | Covid-19 Smoothed daily deaths/million population |
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Log base 10(smoothed daily confirmed cases/million population) | Log base 10(smoothed daily |
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Nordic and Baltic countries 8/17/20
Observations:
- Finland recorded the first confirmed Covid-19 case 1/29/20, followed by Sweden on 1/31/20.
- Sweeden also recorded the fist death on 3/11/20.
- Sweden stands out as having the highest number of cases as well as the highest deaths per million population (over five times that of the runner-up Denmark) and the deaths/confirmed cases. See for example https://newsroom.uvahealth.com/2020/07/03/covid-19-deaths-in-sweden/ for how this is related to the country's lack of a lockdown.
- Iceland also stands out in the effectiveness in reducing the increase in confirmed cases. For more information on How Iceland beat the Virus see https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus.
- After Sweden, Iceland has the second-highest confirmed cases/million population.
- On 3/2/20 Latvia was the last country to record a confirmed case and the last country to record a death on 4/13/20.
Western Europe 8/18/20
Cumulative Confirmed cases | Cumulative Confirmed cases per million population | Cumulative deaths per million population |
---|---|---|
7 day smoothing of daily confirmed cases per million population | 7 day smoothing of daily deaths per million population |
Observations:
- Spain and the UK lead in numbers of confirmed cases, with Spain having overtaken the UK in the second week of August. Spain and the UK are followed by Italy, France, and Germany.
- When one normalizes the confirmed case by the population then Spain still leads, but now followed by Belgium, the UK, Switzerland, and Italy. Austria and Germany have the lowest values.
- In terms of deaths per million population, Belgium leads followed by the trio of Spain, the UK, and Italy. Germany and Austria have the lowest values, about 10 times lower than Belgium.
- For all countries, there was an initial peak in daily confirmed deaths starting the 4th week in March and ending the 3rd week of April. There is a further rise starting in the 4th week in July.
- The ratio of deaths/confirmed cases for all countries except Italy peaked in May. Italy peak a month later. The ratio has continued to reduce for all countries since then. Belgium, France, and Spain saw a large decrease starting in August.
- in the 4th week of July the daily confirmed cases see an increase for all countries. Since then Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France are taking the lead.
South East Europe 8/18/20
Cumulative confirmed cases | Cumulative confirmed cases per million population | Cumulative deaths per million population |
---|---|---|
Due to time-out problems with the www.charte.ca app, we had to reduce the number of countries we included in South East Europe. The reductions included removing Cyprus and Montenegro in turn.
Observations:
- The first countries to report a confirmed case were Croatia (2/25/20) followed by Greece and Macedonia (both on 2/26/20).
- The first countries to report a death were Greece and Albania (both 3/11/20).
- Serbia took the lead in confirmed cases in the first week of April and has held it ever since. Serbia is followed by Bosnia Herzegovina and Macedonia with less than half the number of confirmed cases. With about half the number of cases again come: Albania, Greece, and Croatia. Cyprus has the smallest number of confirmed cases.
- Between April and June Slovenia, Montenegro, Albania, and Croatia flattened their curves (also see https://emerging-europe.com/from-the-editor/nobodys-talking-about-south-east-europes-success-at-containing-coronavirus-anymore/). All are now trending upwards with Montenegro, Boznia Herzegovina, Serbia and Albania leading the charge (also see https://balkaninsight.com/2020/08/03/europes-southeast-grapples-with-covid-19-resurgence/)
- If we normalize by taking the number of confirmed cases per million population, then Montenegro and Macedonia are the leaders. They are followed by Boznia Montenegro, Serbia, and Albania. Greece has the lowest value.
- Albania and Serbia both peaked in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases at the end of March/early April. Slovenia, Boznia Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Croatia all peaked in May-June.
- Overall Serbia appears to have managed to maintain the lowest deaths/confirmed cases since the 3rd week in March. Just recently Croatia is has achieved similar ratios.
- Bosnia Herzegovina and Serbia currently (8/18/20) have the highest daily confirmed cases. Slovenia, Croatia, and Greece have the lowest daily cases.
Eastern Europe 8/21/20
Our definition includes: Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Switserland. We do not include Liechensten with a population of 38,000.
Cumulative confirmed cases | Cumulative confirmed cases per million population | Cumulative deaths per million population |
---|---|---|
Cumulative % deaths/confirmed cases | 7 day smoothed daily confirmed cases per million population | 7 day smoothed daily deaths per million population |
---|---|---|
Observations:
- On 2/25/20 Austria and Switzerland were the first two E European countries to record a confirmed case.
- On 3/5/20 Swizerland announced its first Covid-19 death.
- Switzerland and Austria took the lead in confirmed cases early on.
- Poland and Romania have continued to increase the confirmed cases while the other countries remained fairly steady in the cumulative cases until July.
- Austria was overtaken by Poland and Romania in the second week of May.
- Switzerland held the lead in confirmed cases until mid June, when it was overtaken by Poland.
- Poland, in turn, was overtaken by Romania towards the end of June.
- Starting in July Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria noticeably started to increase their cumulative confirmed cases.
- When one takes the cumulative confirmed cases per million population Switzerland and Austria maintain their lead until the last week of July when Austria is overtaken by Romania.
- Slovakia and Hungary appear to have been the most successful in flattening the curve of confirmed cases per million population.
- In terms of deaths per million population, Switzerland leads with over 220 cases/million population. Romania is in second place and catching up since the cumulative deaths for Switzerland are pretty flat while Romania's are increasing.
- Bulgaria and Poland also have cumulative deaths which are noticeably climbing.
- The ratio of deaths/confirmed cases has peaked for all countries and is in a downward trend,
- The daily confirmed cases for all countries peaked beween March 20 and April 20, wuth Switzerland having the highest confirmed cases/million population followed by Austria.
- After a lull in daily confirmed cases they started to rise again in June for all countries, most noteceably for Romania and Bulgaria.
- A similar chart (though with much lower absolute values) is seen for the daily deaths, though only Romania and Bulgaria appear to have the increase in July August.
More information:
- Austria see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Austria
- Bulgaria see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Bulgaria
- Czech Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_Czech_Republic
- Hungary see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Hungary
- Romania see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Romania
- Slovakia see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Slovakia
- Switzerland see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Switzerland
Charts of deaths and confirmed cases for European countries by sub-regions Feb-Jun 2020
Motion chart deaths vs confirmed | Bubble chart of days between first confirmed case and first death | Bubble chart of deaths/confirmed cases vs density of population | Bubble chart of deaths/confirmed vs Confirmed cases |
---|---|---|---|
Click on the chart to see the motion of the Covid cases with time | Click on chart | Click on chart | Click on chart |
Observations:
- Italy (IT) reported its first deaths on February 20. At this time it reported 62 confirmed cases.
- France (FR) was the next country to announce deaths on February 24. At this time France reported 24 confirmed cases, and Italy reported 453 confirmed cases and 12 deaths.
- On March 2, Spain was the 3rd European country to report deaths, at this time Spain (ES) reported 22 confirmed cases, Italy reported 107 deaths and 3059 confirmed cases and France reported 4 deaths and 288 confirmed cases.
- Germany (DE) and Iceland (IS) lagged behind other countries in terms of deaths/confirmed cases.
- Italy and Spain then took the lead and maintained it until the third week of April. By this time, France and the UK (UK) had caught up Italy and Spain and on April 24, the four countries were reporting:
Country | Confirmed cases | Deaths |
---|---|---|
Italy | 195,351 | 26,384 |
Spain | 205,905 | 22,902 |
France | 161,644 | 22,617 |
UK | 155,453 | 23,697 |
- Iceland (IS) succeeded in halting the rise in deaths and confirmed cases on April 21.
- From mid May onwards Byelorussia 's (BY) deaths/confirmed cases were lower than other countries (excluding Iceland and the Netherlands).
- By the beginning of June, Russia (RU), Germany(DE) and Turkey (TR) had pretty much caught up with Italy, Spain, France and the UK in terms of confirmed cases.
- The Scandinavian countries (Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), Sweden (SE)), Latvia and Germany (DE) appear to lead the way in the number of confirmed cases when the first death occurs.
- By the first week of July:
- In terms of deaths/confirmed cases: Belgium (BE) leads the way with 16%, followed by in turn France (FR) 15%, the United Kingdom (UK) 15%, Italy (IT) 14%, Hungary (Hu) 14%) and Spain (ES) 11%. All except Belgium have a population of over 40M.
Notes
Demographic correlations for California
We investigated the correlations between the demographics and the confirmed Covid-19 cases for California. We used the R squared coefficient of determination to characterize the degree of correlation between the various demographics using a linear fit.
Demographic | Income | Education | Cases | Politics | Age | Population density | Population |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Per capita income | * | 0.81 | 0.0032 | .28 | 0.008 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
% of people completing college education for CA | 0.81 | * | 0.016 | 0.43 | 0.009 | 0.20 | 0.043 |
Covid-19 confirmed cases | 0.0032 | 0.016 | * | 0.34 | 0.012 | 0.14 | 0.77 |
% of Registered voters who are registered as Democratic | 0.28 | 0.43 | 0.034 | * | 0.089 | 0.15 | 0.081 |
Median age | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.012 | 0.0089 | * | 0.0029 | 0.084 |
Population density (people/sq mile) | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.0029 | * | |
Population | 0.19 | 0.043 | 0.77 | 0.081 | 0.084 | * |
It is seen that there is a strong correlation between the per capita income and education and between confirmed cases and population, a medium correlation between registered voter political leaning and education. The excel spreadsheet of the analysis of the above demographics and their correlations can be found here.
Use of www.charte.ca
We noticed that with a large amount of data (e.g. over 2200 lines of Excel comma-separated value data from say each day from January 22 thru July 22 and say greater than 20 states) the building of a grouped motion chart would not complete. Thus we broke the data down by either reducing the number of states (e.g. by selection states based on their population range)or reducing the number of days (e.g. by only including every 5th day).
Ungrouped
Deaths vs Confirmed:
We tend to use a log log chart which provides greater visibility of a wide range of data (compare the two charts below), and since both the confirmed data and deaths are exponential in their behavior for most states. Also note that with a logarithmic scale: a straight line means exponential growth, and the steeper a line, the faster the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases or deaths is doubling.
Linear plotLog Log plot
.- The first confirmed cases were seen by WA 1/22/20, IL a day later and AZ & CA on 1/25/20
. - First deaths reported for Washington State were at the start of March
. - Deaths start to really increase in the second week in March
. - By the start of April, NY followed by NJ were leading the way in both deaths and confirmed cases
. - By the end of the second week in April, SD and UT are noticeably below the general line followed by other states
. - On 3/30/20 WV was the last state to record a Covid-19 death
- At the end of the second week in April, WY appears to be the last state to have greater than one Corona-19 death.
.
Deaths/Million Population vs Confirmed cases/Million Population
- The leading states in terms of deaths per million population are: NY, NJ, CT, MA, LA, MI, DE,DC, RI.
The leading states in terms of confirmed per million of population are: NY, NJ, MA, DE, CT,RI, LA, DC, MI
If one does not normalize by population the NY and NJ standout followed by the top of the bunch being MA and MI
.
Looking at a log vs log plot the trailing states one sees the lowest deaths are for AK SD, HI, MT, WY, ND. The lowest Confirmed cases are for AK, SD, SD,HI, MT, WY, ND. - Note that since it is a log-log scale no bubble appears for a state until there is at least 1 confirmed case and 1 death for the state.
- % Confirmed and deaths both low for AK, VT, NH, ID
- Cluster of DE, DC and RI with low deaths compared to the % confirmed cases
- NY, NJ, MA, DE, CT, LA, RI, DC have the highest % confirmed cases.
- By March 14th, WA, NY, CA, FL were reporting deaths.
Grouped data
If we color the bubbles by each state's political leaning the chart appears below. It is apparent that Covid-19 is impacting democratic states the hardest, followed by the swing states.
We can also group the data by age, income or education tertiles
Grouped by Income | Grouped by Age | Grouped by Education (Bachelor degree or Equivalent) |
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