Page History

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- Imperial county with a population of 177K had 8606 cases and 163 deaths, this compares with El Dorado county with a population of 181K had 443 cases and 0 deaths.

Notes

Demographic correlations for

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California

We investigated the correlations between the demographics and the confirmed Covid-19 cases for CACalifornia. We used the R squared coefficient of determination to characterize the degree of correlation between the various demographics using a linear fit.

Demographic	Income	Education	Cases	Politics	Age	Population density	Population
Per capita income	*	0.81	0.0032	.28	0.008	0.12	0.19
% of people completing college education for CA	0.81	*	0.016	0.43	0.009	0.20	0.043
Covid-19 confirmed cases	0.0032	0.016	*	0.34	0.012	0.14	0.77
% of Registered voters who are registered as Democratic	0.28	0.43	0.034	*	0.089	0.15	0.081
Median age	0.008	0.008	0.012	0.0089	*	0.0029	0.084
Population density (people/sq mile)	0.12	0.20	0.14	0.25	0.0029	*
Population	0.19	0.043	0.77	0.081	0.084		*

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It is seen that there is a strong correlation between the per capita income and education and between confirmed cases and population, a medium correlation between registered voter political leaning and education. The excel spreadsheet of the analysis of the above demographics and their correlations can be

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found here.

Ungrouped

Deaths vs Confirmed:

We tend to use a log log chart which provides greater visibility of a wide range of data (compare the two charts below), and since both the confirmed data and deaths are exponential in their behavior for most states. Also note

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that with a logarithmic scale: a straight line means exponential growth, and the steeper a line, the faster the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases or deaths is doubling.
Linear plot
Log Log plot
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The first confirmed cases were seen by WA 1/22/20, IL a day later and AZ & CA on 1/25/20
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First deaths reported for Washington State were at the start of March
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Deaths start to really increase in the second week in March
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By the start of April, NY followed by NJ were leading the way in both deaths and confirmed cases
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By the end of the second week in April, SD and UT are noticeably below the general line followed by other states
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On 3/30/20 WV was the last state to record a Covid-19 death
At the end of the second week in April, WY appears to be the last state to have greater than one Corona-19 death.
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Deaths/Million Population vs Confirmed cases/Million Population

The leading states in terms of deaths per million population are: NY, NJ, CT, MA, LA, MI, DE,DC, RI.
The leading states in terms of confirmed per million of population are: NY, NJ, MA, DE, CT,RI, LA, DC, MI
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If one does not normalize by population the NY and NJ standout followed by the top of the bunch being MA and MI
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Looking at a log vs log plot the trailing states one sees the lowest deaths are for AK SD, HI, MT, WY, ND. The lowest Confirmed cases are for AK, SD, SD,HI, MT, WY, ND.
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Note that since it is a log-log scale no bubble appears for a state until there is at least 1 confirmed case and 1 death for the state.
% Confirmed and deaths both low for AK, VT, NH, ID
Cluster of DE, DC and RI with low deaths compared to the % confirmed cases
NY, NJ, MA, DE, CT, LA, RI, DC have the highest % confirmed cases.
By March 14th, WA, NY, CA, FL were reporting deaths.

Grouped data

If we color the bubbles by each state's political leaning the chart appears below. It is apparent that Covid-19 is impacting democratic states the hardest, followed by the swing states.

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