Page History

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California by County every 5 days

Observations:

• • Deaths are roughly linear with confirmed cases on a log scale
  • By March 24th the following counties were already observing deaths: Santa Clara (SCL), Riverside (RIV), San Jose (SJ), Sacramento (SAC), LA County, Orange County. 
  • By June 25th:
    • In terms of confirmed cases and deaths per 1 Million county population
      • The leading counties are Lake (LAK), Nevada (NEV), Mono (MNO) with Imperial (IMP) catching up since the end of May. 
      • These are followed by LA County (LA), Orange Country (OR), Kings County (KIN), Tuolumne (TUO) and Riverside (RIV).
    • If one just takes the number of cases (i.e. do not normalize by the population of the county) then:
      • The leading counties are LA County (LA), Orange County (OR), Lake County (LAK), Nevada County (Nevada
), Riverside (RIV
• • • • ),
San Diego County (SD) and San Bernadino County (SBD)By March 24th the following counties were already observing deaths: Santa Clara (SCL),
• • • • Riverside (RIV), San
Jose (SJ), Sacramento (SAC), LA County, Orange County. The last county to record a Covid-19 death was Sierra County (SIE) on May 21st, 2020.
• • • • Diego County (SD) and San Bernadino County (SBD)
    • In general, the counties with lower per capita income appear to have lower numbers of confirmed cases and deaths, The exceptions are Lake County (LAK), Imperial County (IMP), Kern County (KER), Tuolumne County (TUO) and Fremont County (FRE).
  • By July 20:
    • LA county, Orange county (ORA), Lake, Riverside (RIV), San Diego (SD) and San Bernadino (SBD)  counties by July 20 had a clear lead in deaths and confirmed cases. 
    • By this time LA county had almost four times the deaths of the next highest (Orange) county and almost three times the confirmed cases.
    • The following counties had zero deaths:

...

• • Imperial county with a population of 177K had 8606 cases and 163 deaths, this compares with El Dorado county with a population of 181K had 443 cases and 0 deaths.

Notes

Demographic correlations for CA

We investigated the correlations between the demographics and the confirmed Covid-19 cases for CA. We used the R squared coefficient of determination to characterize the degree of correlation between the various demographics using a linear fit.

Demographic

Income

Education

Cases

Politics

Age

Population density

Population

Per capita income

*

0.81

0.0032

.28

0.008

0.12

0.19

% of people completing college education for CA

0.81

*

0.016

0.43

0.009

0.20

0.043

Covid-19 confirmed cases

0.0032

0.016

*

0.34

0.012

0.14

0.77

% of Registered voters who are registered as Democratic

0.28

0.43

0.034

*

0.089

0.15

0.081

Median age

0.008

0.008

0.012

0.0089

*

0.0029

0.084

Population density (people/sq mile)

0.12

0.20

0.14

0.25

0.0029

*

Population

0.19

0.043

0.77

0.081

0.084

*

It is seen that there is a strong correlation between the per capita income and education and between confirmed cases and population, a medium correlation between registered voter political leaning and education. The excel spreadsheet of the analysis of the above demographics and their correlations can be found here.

Ungrouped

Deaths vs Confirmed:

We tend to use a log log chart which provides greater visibility of a wide range of data (compare the two charts below), and since both the confirmed data and deaths are exponential in their behavior for most states. Also note that with a logarithmic scale: a straight line means exponential growth, and the steeper a line, the faster the total number of confirmed coronavirus cases or deaths is doubling.

Linear plot

Log Log plot

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The first confirmed cases were seen by WA 1/22/20, IL a day later and  AZ & CA on 1/25/20
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First deaths reported for Washington State were at the start of March
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Deaths start to really increase in the second week in March
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By the start of April, NY followed by NJ were leading the way in both deaths and confirmed cases
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By the end of the second week in April, SD and UT are noticeably below the general line followed by other states
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On 3/30/20 WV was the last state to record a Covid-19 death  

At the end of the second week in April, WY appears to be the last state to have greater than one Corona-19 death.
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Deaths/Million Population vs  Confirmed cases/Million Population

The leading states in terms of deaths per million population are: NY, NJ, CT, MA, LA, MI, DE,DC, RI.
The leading states in terms of confirmed per million of population are: NY, NJ, MA, DE, CT,RI, LA, DC, MI
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If one does not normalize by population the NY and NJ standout followed by the top of the bunch being MA and MI
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Looking at a log vs log plot the trailing states one sees the lowest deaths are for AK SD, HI, MT, WY, ND. The lowest Confirmed cases are for AK, SD, SD,HI, MT, WY, ND.
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Note that since it is a log-log scale no bubble appears for a state until there is at least 1 confirmed case and 1 death for the state.

% Confirmed and deaths both low for AK, VT, NH, ID

Cluster of DE, DC and RI with low deaths compared to the % confirmed cases

NY, NJ, MA, DE, CT, LA, RI, DC have the highest % confirmed cases.

By March 14th, WA, NY, CA, FL were reporting deaths.

Grouped data

If we color the bubbles by each state's political leaning the chart appears below. It is apparent that Covid-19 is impacting democratic states the hardest, followed by the swing states.

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We can also group the data by age, income or education tertiles

Grouped by Income

Grouped by Age

Grouped by Education (Bachelor degree or Equivalent)

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Visualizing countries with larger populations|