The list of rallies is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_post-election_Donald_Trump_rallies where I have added the county, its population, and where available, estimates of the number of attendees.
General Election rallies (June 2020–present)
| Date of rally | City | County | County population (attendees) | State | Venue | Other speakers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday, June 20, 2020[108] | Tulsa | Tulsa County | (6200) | OK | BOK Center | Lara Trump, Eric Trump, Mike Pence, Diamond and Silk, Kimberly Guilfoyle, T. W. Shannon |
| Tuesday, June 23, 2020[109] | Phoenix | Maricopa County | AZ | DreamJoe CityFoss ChurchHangar | Donald Trump Jr., Kimberly Guilfoyle, Charlie Kirk | |
| Monday, August 17, 2020[110] | Mankato | Blue Earth County | 64,013 | MN | Mankato Regional Airport | |
| Monday, August 17, 2020[111] | Oshkosh | Winnebago County | 171907 (several hundred) | WI | Oshkosh airway | |
| Tuesday, August 18, 2020[112] | Yuma | Yuma County | 195795 | AZ | Joe Foss Hangar | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2020[113] | Old Forge | Lackawanna County | 209674 | PA | Mariotti Building Products | |
| Friday, August 28, 2020[114] | Londonderry | Rockingham County | 309769 (1400) | NH | Pro Star Aviation | |
| Thursday, September 3, 2020[115] | Latrobe | Westmoreland County | 348899 | PA | Arnold Palmer Regional Airport | Sean Parnell |
| Tuesday, September 8, 2020[116] | Winston-Salem | Forsyth County | 382295 | NC | Smith Reynolds Airport | |
| Thursday, September 10, 2020[117] | Freeland | Saginaw County | 190539 | MI | Avflight Saginaw | John E. James |
| Saturday, September 12, 2020[118] | Indoors | Douglas County | 48905 | NV | Minden-Tahoe Airport | |
| Sunday, September 13, 2020[119] | Henderson | Clark County | 2.28 million | NV | Xtreme Manufacturing | |
| Friday, September 18, 2020[120] | Bemidji | Beltrami County | 47188 | MN | Bemidji Aviation Services | |
| Friday, September 18, 2020[121] | Mosinee | Marathon County | 135692 | WI | Central Wisconsin Aviation |
Method
We are interested in whether some of these events may have served as 'super-spreader' events.
To reduce the number of events and thus make the charts easier (fewer overlapping lines) to follow we organize the events by month.
The raw data we analyze is the Johns Hopkins University daily confirmed cases data for the US available at: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
The social distancing at the rallies was minimal, and not everyone wore masks, see the photos below taken at the Oshkosh rally.
|
|
We just look at the number of daily confirmed cases for the county in which the event was held. Thus we do not include cases from surrounding counties etc.
August 17 2020 | August 19 2020 |
|---|---|
|
|
Observations:
The smoothed daily confirmed cases indicated marked increases in the cases as follows
County State date of event date of noticeable increase in cases magnitude of increase delay peak Blue Earth Minnesota 8/17/2020 8/27/2020 3x increase in cases/day 10 days 9/03/2020 Lackawanna Pennsylvania 8/20/2020 8/29/2020 3x increase in cases/day 9 days 9/04-15/2020 Rockingham New Hampshire 8/28/2020 9/10/2020 2x increase in cases/day
13 days 9/12-17/2020 Winnebago Wisconsin 8/17/2020 8/28/2020 2.5x increase in cases/day 11 days 9/18/20 Westmoreland Pennsylvania 9/3/2020 9/12/2020 No apparent increase Saginaw Michigan 9/10/2020 No apparent increase Douglas Nevada 9/12/2020 The sharp rise in Winnebago from about 10 confirmed cases/day before the rally to over 80 new daily cases reported on 8/19/2020 is a concern.
If we look at the surrounding counties in the same state we see:
Douglas County NV | Winnebago WI | Blue Earth MN | Lackawanna PA | Rockingham NH |
|
|
|
|
|
