Method
We divide up the states according to the October 8th, 2020 NPR report https://www.npr.org/2020/10/09/921596963/npr-electoral-map-biden-lead-widens-again-with-less-than-a-month-to-go.
We then use the JHU data at https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 to get the daily confirmed cases for each state, seen below (click on the chart image for the Excel workbook, then click on the Chart1 tab to access the chart):
| Likely Biden | Leaning Biden | Toss up |
|---|---|---|
CA,,CO,CT,DE,DC,HI,IL,MD,MA,NJ,NM,NY, | AZ,MI,MN,NV,NH,PA,WI | FL,GE,IA,NC,OH |
|
|  |
|
|
|
| AL,AR,ID,IN,KS,KY,LA,MS,MT,ND,OK,SC,SD,TN,UT,WV,WY | AK,MO,TX | ME, NE: Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes by a mix of congressional district and statewide popular vote rather than winner-take-all. |
| Likely Trump | Leaning Trump | Nebraska: 3/5 solid Trump, 1/5 lean Trump, 1/5 lean Biden Maine: 3/4 solid Biden, 1/4 toss up |
It is noticeable that the Likely Biden states had a much more pronounced initial daily confirmed cases peak in April, while Likely Trump states secondary peak in July-August exceeds Biden states and both are ramping up once again in October - November.
| Likely Biden | Leaning Biden |
|---|---|
| CA,,CO,CT,DE,DC,HI,IL,MD,MA,NJ,NM,NY | AZ,MI,MN,NV,NH,PA,WI |
|
|
|
|
| AL,AR,ID,IN,KS,KY,LA,MS,MT,ND,OK,SC,SD,TN,UT,WV,WY | AK,MO,TX |
| Likely Trump | Leaning Biden |
The Biden states have a larger initial daily deaths peak in April-May after which the likely Biden state daily deaths are kept low while the likely Trump states peak again in July-August and are again rising in October-November.
Also see
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Counties-with-worst-virus-surges-overwhelmingly-15705154.php