Method
We divide up the states according to the October 8th, 2020 NPR report https://www.npr.org/2020/10/09/921596963/npr-electoral-map-biden-lead-widens-again-with-less-than-a-month-to-go.
We then use the JHU data at https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 to get the daily confirmed cases for each state, seen below (click on the chart image for the the Excel workbook, the. click on
| Solid Biden | Leaning Biden | Toss up |
|---|---|---|
CA,,CO,CT,DE,DC,HI,IL,MD,MA,NJ,NM,NY, | AZ,MI,MN,NV,NH,PA,WI | FL,GE,IA,NC,OH |
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| AL,AR,ID,IN,KS,KY,LA,MS,MT,ND,OK,SC,SD,TN,UT,WV,WY | AK,MO,TX | ME, NE: Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes by a mix of congressional district and statewide popular vote rather than winner-take-all. |
| Solid Trump | Leaning Trump | Nebraska: 3/5 solid Trump, 1/5 lean Trump, 1/5 lean Biden Maine: 3/4 solid Biden, 1/4 toss up |
