Method
We divide up the states according to the October 8th, 2020 NPR report https://www.npr.org/2020/10/09/921596963/npr-electoral-map-biden-lead-widens-again-with-less-than-a-month-to-go.
We then use the JHU data to get the daily confirmed cases for each state
| Solid Biden | Leaning Biden | Toss up |
|---|---|---|
| HI,WA,OR,CA,NM,IL,NY,VA,VT,MA, CT,RI,NJ,DE,MD,DC | NV,AZ,MN,WI,PA,NM | IA,OH,NC,GA,FL |
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| ID,UT,MT,WY,ND,SD,KS,OK,OR,LA, IN,KY,TN,MS,AL,WV,SC | AK,TX,MO | ME, NE: Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes by a mix of congressional district and statewide popular vote rather than winner-take-all. |
| Solid Trump | Leaning Trump | Nebraska: 3/5 solid Trump, 1/5 lean Trump, 1/5 lean Biden Maine: 3/4 solid Biden, 1/4 toss up |
