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We divide up the states according to the October 8th, 2020 NPR report https://www.npr.org/2020/10/09/921596963/npr-electoral-map-biden-lead-widens-again-with-less-than-a-month-to-go.
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We then use the JHU data to data at https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 to get the daily confirmed cases for each state
| Solid Biden | Leaning Biden | Toss up |
|---|
| HI CA, WA, ORCO, CACT, NMDE, ILDC, NYHI, VAIL, VTMD,MA ,
CT, RI,NJ, DENM, MDNY, DC | NVAZ,AZMI,MN,NV,WINH,PA,NMWI | FL,GE,IA,OH,NC,GA,FLOH |
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AL,AR,ID,IN,UTKS,MTKY,WYLA,NDMS,SDMT,KSND,OK,ORSC,LASD,
IN,KY,TN,MSUT,AL,WV,SCWY | AK,MO,TX | ,MOMETXME, NE: Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes by a mix of congressional district and statewide popular vote rather than winner-take-all. |
| Solid Trump | Leaning Trump | Nebraska: 3/5 solid Trump, 1/5 lean Trump, 1/5 lean Biden Maine: 3/4 solid Biden, 1/4 toss up |
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