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| Likely Biden | Leaning Biden |
|---|---|
| CA,,CO,CT,DE,DC,HI,IL,MD,MA,NJ,NM,NY | AZ,MI,MN,NV,NH,PA,WI |
| |
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| AL,AR,ID,IN,KS,KY,LA,MS,MT,ND,OK,SC,SD,TN,UT,WV,WY | AK,MO,TX |
| Likely Trump | Leaning Biden |
The Biden states have a larger initial daily deaths peak in April-May after which the likely Biden state daily deaths are kept low while the Triump likely Trump states peak again in July-August and are again rising in October-November.
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