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Date of rally

CityCounty

County population

(attendees)

StateVenueOther speakers
Saturday, June 20, 2020[108]TulsaTulsa County(6200)OKBOK CenterLara TrumpEric TrumpMike PenceDiamond and SilkKimberly GuilfoyleT. W. Shannon
Tuesday, June 23, 2020[109]PhoenixMaricopa County
AZDreamJoe CityFoss ChurchHangarDonald Trump Jr.Kimberly GuilfoyleCharlie Kirk
Monday, August 17, 2020[110]MankatoBlue Earth County64,013MNMankato Regional Airport
Monday, August 17, 2020[111]OshkoshWinnebago County171907
(several hundred)
WIOshkosh airway
Tuesday, August 18, 2020[112]YumaYuma County195795AZJoe Foss Hangar
Thursday, August 20, 2020[113]Old Forge

Lackawanna County

209674PAMariotti Building Products
Friday, August 28, 2020[114]LondonderryRockingham County

309769

(1400)

NHPro Star Aviation
Thursday, September 3, 2020[115]LatrobeWestmoreland County348899PAArnold Palmer Regional AirportSean Parnell
Tuesday, September 8, 2020[116]Winston-SalemForsyth County

382295

(several thousand)

NCSmith Reynolds Airport
Thursday, September 10, 2020[117]FreelandSaginaw County190539MIAvflight SaginawJohn E. James
Saturday, September 12, 2020[118]

Minden

Indoors

Douglas County

48905

(thousands)

NVMinden-Tahoe Airport
Sunday, September 13, 2020[119]HendersonClark County

2.28 million

(5600)

NVXtreme Manufacturing
Friday, September 18, 2020[120]BemidjiBeltrami County47188MNBemidji Aviation Services
Friday, September 18, 2020[121]MosineeMarathon County135692WICentral Wisconsin Aviation

Method

We are interested in whether some of these events may have served as 'super-spreader' events

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Mankato, Blue Earth County, MN 8/17/2020Old Forge, Lakawanna County, PA 8/20/2020Rockingham, Londonderry, NH 8/28/2020


Observations:

  • Blue Earth sees a rise in cases 10 days after the rally.
  • Brown sees a rise in cases 26 days after the rally.
  • Faribault sees a rise in cases around 12-14 days
    after the rally.
  • Le Sueur sees a rise in cases 3-4 days after the rally
    that rises to a peak after 11-12 days after the rally
    and then falls. We assume this not likely to be
    associated with the rally.
  • Martin sees a rise in cases 12 days after the rally
    with a peak at 17 days, followed by a dip and then
    a larger rise in cases.
  • Nicollet sees no apparent rise in cases.
  • Waseca cases are on a rising slope when the
    rally occurs, this plateaus after 4 days
    until day 17 when it again rises
  • Watonwan is very variable so no conclusions are made

Observations:

  • Ther are significant rises in the number of cases in the 2-14 days after the event on 8/20/20.
    • In particular for Lackawana county 10 days after the rally.
    • There is a rise for Susquehanna county starting just before the rally.
    • Also Wayne county sees a rise about 14 days after the rally.
    • On the other hand Luzerne county sees a similar rise two weeks before the rally.

Observations:

  • There is a rise in confirmed cases for all
    counties, 5-14 days following the rally.


Marathon County WI


Image Modified





Marathon County WI 9/17/2020







Also see

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