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 10 days later.The list of rallies is from  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_post-election_Donald_Trump_rallies where I have added the county, its population, and where available, estimates of the number of attendees.

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The raw data we analyze is the Johns Hopkins University daily confirmed cases data for the US available at:  https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv

The question is whether there was a significant rise in confirmed Covid-19 cases after the rally, in particular in the 2-14 days following the rally (according to the CDC, Sep 18, 2020: "Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after you were exposed to COVID-19".

The social distancing at the rallies was minimal, and not everyone wore masks, see the photos below taken at the Oshkosh rally.

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• The smoothed daily confirmed cases indicated marked increases in the cases as follows

  County	State	date of event	date of a noticeable increase in cases	magnitude of increase	delay	peak
  Blue Earth	Minnesota	8/17/2020	8/27/2020	3x increase in cases/day	10 days	9/03/2020
  Lackawanna	Pennsylvania	8/20/2020	8/29/2020	3x increase in cases/day	9 days	9/04-15/2020
  Rockingham	New Hampshire	8/28/2020	9/10/2020	2x increase in cases/day However no cases were linked to the rally by Sept 11.	13 days	9/12-17/2020
  Winnebago	Wisconsin	8/17/2020	8/28/2020	2.5x increase in cases/day	11 days	9/18/20
  Westmoreland	Pennsylvania	9/3/2020	9/12/2020	No apparent increase
  Saginaw	Michigan	9/10/2020		No apparent increase
  Douglas	Nevada	9/12/2020
  Marathon	Wisconsin	9/17/2020

  The sharp rise in Winnebago county from about 12 confirmed cases/day before the rally to over 80 new daily cases reported on 8/19/2020 is a concern. 

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Mankato, Blue Earth County, MN 8/17/2020	Old Forge, Lakawanna County, PA 8/20/2020	Rockingham, Londonderry, NH 8/28/2020
Observations: Blue Earth sees a rise in cases 10 days after the rally. Brown sees a rise in cases 26 days after the rally. Faribault sees a rise in cases around 12-14 days after the rally. Le Sueur sees a rise in cases 3-4 days after the rally that rises to a peak after 11-12 days after the rally and then falls. We assume this not likely to be associated with the rally. Martin sees a rise in cases 12 days after the rally with a peak at 17 days, followed by a dip and then a larger rise in cases. Nicollet sees no apparent rise in cases. Waseca cases are on a rising slope when the rally occurs, this plateaus after 4 days until day 17 when it again rises Watonwan is very variable so no conclusions are made	Observations: Ther are significant rises in the number of cases in the 2-14 days after the event on 8/20/20. In particular for Lackawana county 10 days after the rally. There is a rise for Susquehanna county starting just before the rally. Also Wayne county sees a rise about 14 days after the rally. On the other hand Luzerne county sees a similar rise two weeks before the rally.	Observations: There is a rise in confirmed cases for all counties, 5-14 days following the rally.

Also see

• https://time.com/5865890/oklahoma-covid-19-trump-tulsa-rally/
• https://www.axios.com/trump-rally-fined-violating-covid-guidelines-1566236b-0177-4407-b139-a7f69c11db66.html
• https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/nevada-health-officials-predict-uptick-in-covid-19-cases-following-labor-day-weekend-crowds-trump-ralliesrallie