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The social distancing at the rallies was minimal, and not everyone wore maksmasks, see the photos photo below taken at the Oshkosh rally.
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We just look at the number of daily confirmed cases for the county in which the event was held. Thus we do not include cases from surrounding counties etc.
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The smoothed daily confirmed cases indicated marked increases in the cases as follows
County State date of event date of noticeable increase in cases magnitude of increase delay peak Blue Earth Minnesota 8/17/2020 8/27/2020 3x increase in cases/day 10 days 9/03/2020 Lackawanna Pennsylvania 8/20/2020 8/29/2020 3x increase in cases/day 9 days 9/04/2020 Rockingham New Hampshire 8/28/2020 9/10/2020 2x increase in cases/day
However note that no cases were inked linked to the rally by Sept 11.
13 days Not yet Winnebago Wisconsin 8/17/2020 8/28/2020 2.5x increase in cases/day 11 days Not yet Westmoreland Pennsylvania 9/3/2020 9/12/2020 No apparent increase The sharp rise in Winnebago from about 10 confirmed cases/day before the rally to over 60 new daily cases reported on 8/17/2020 is a concern.
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