...
We then use the JHU data at https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 to get the daily confirmed cases for each state, seen below (click on the chart image for the the Excel workbook, the. click on then click on the Chart1 tab to access the chart):
It is noticeable that the Likely Biden states had a much more pronounced initial daily confirmed cases peak in April, while Likely Trump states secondary peak in July-August exceeds Biden states and both are ramping up once again in October - November.
| Likely Biden | Leaning Biden |
|---|---|
| CA,,CO,CT,DE,DC,HI,IL,MD,MA,NJ,NM,NY | AZ,MI,MN,NV,NH,PA,WI |
| AL,AR,ID,IN,KS,KY,LA,MS,MT,ND,OK,SC,SD,TN,UT,WV,WY | AK,MO,TX |
| Likely Trump | Leaning Biden |
The Biden states have a larger initial daily deaths peak in April-May after which the likely Biden state daily deaths are kept low while the likely Trump states peak again in July-August and are again rising in October-November.
Also see
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Counties-with-worst-virus-surges-overwhelmingly-15705154.php