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We divide up the states according to the October 8th, 2020 NPR report https://www.npr.org/2020/10/09/921596963/npr-electoral-map-biden-lead-widens-again-with-less-than-a-month-to-go.

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We then use the JHU data to data  at https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 to get the daily confirmed cases for each state, seen below (click on the chart image for the Excel workbook, then click on the Chart1 tab to access the chart):

Likely Solid Biden	Leaning Biden	Toss up
HI  CA, WA , OR CO, CA CT, NM DE, IL DC, NY HI, VA IL, VT MD,MA , CT,RI ,NJ, DE NM, MD NY, DC	NVAZ,AZMI,MN,NV,WINH,PA,NMWI	FL,GE,IA,OH,NC,GA,FLOH
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AL,AR,ID,IN,UTKS,MTKY,WYLA,NDMS,SDMT,KSND,OK,ORSC,LASD, IN,KY,TN,MSUT,AL,WV,SCWY	AK,MO,TX,MO	ME, NE: Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes by a mix of congressional district and statewide popular vote rather than winner-take-all.
Solid Likely Trump	Leaning Trump	Nebraska: 3/5s olid 5 solid Trump, 1/5 lean Trump, 1/5 lean Biden Maine: 3/4 solid Biden, 1/4 toss up

It is noticeable that the Likely Biden states had a much more pronounced initial daily confirmed cases peak in April, while Likely Trump states secondary peak in July-August exceeds Biden states and both are ramping up once again in October - November.

The Biden states have a larger initial daily deaths peak in April-May after which the likely Biden state daily deaths are kept low while the likely Trump states peak again in July-August  and are again rising in October-November.

Also see

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Counties-with-worst-virus-surges-overwhelmingly-15705154.php