Page History

...

We divide up the states according to the October 8th, 2020 NPR report https://www.npr.org/2020/10/09/921596963/npr-electoral-map-biden-lead-widens-again-with-less-than-a-month-to-go.

Image Added

We then use the JHU data to data  at https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 to get the daily confirmed cases for each state, seen below (click on the chart image for the Excel workbook, then click on the Chart1 tab to access the chart):

Likely

Solid

Biden	Leaning Biden	Toss up

HI

CA,

WA

,

OR

CO,

CA

CT,

NM

DE,

IL

DC,

NY

HI,

VA

IL,

VT

MD,MA,

CT,RI,

NJ,

DE

NM,

MD

NY,

DCNV

AZ,

AZ

MI,MN,

WI

NV,NH,PA,

NM

WI

FL,GE,IA

,OH

,NC,

GA,FL

Image Removed

Image Removed

Image Removed

Image Removed

Image Removed

ID,UT,MT,WY,ND,SD,KS,OK,OR,LA,
IN,KY,TN,MS,AL,WV,SCAK,TX,MOSolid TrumpLeaning Trump

OH
Image Added	Image Added	Image Added
Image Added	Image Added	Image Added
AL,AR,ID,IN,KS,KY,LA,MS,MT,ND,OK,SC,SD,TN,UT,WV,WY	AK,MO,TX	ME, NE: Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes by a mix of congressional district and statewide popular vote rather than winner-take-all.
Likely Trump	Leaning Trump	Nebraska: 3/5 solid Trump, 1/5 lean Trump, 1/5 lean Biden Maine: 3/4 solid Biden, 1/4 toss up

It is noticeable that the Likely Biden states had a much more pronounced initial daily confirmed cases peak in April, while Likely Trump states secondary peak in July-August exceeds Biden states and both are ramping up once again in October - November.

The Biden states have a larger initial daily deaths peak in April-May after which the likely Biden state daily deaths are kept low while the likely Trump states peak again in July-August  and are again rising in October-November.

Also see

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Counties-with-worst-virus-surges-overwhelmingly-15705154.php