The The list of rallies is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_post-election_Donald_Trump_rallies where I have added the county, its population, and where available, estimates of the number of attendees.
General Election rallies (June 2020–present)
Date of rally | City | County | County population (attendees) | State | Venue |
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Possible impact of rally on daily Confirmed cases in adjacent counties | Observations | |
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Saturday, June 20, 2020 |
Tulsa | Tulsa County | (6200) | OK | BOK Center |
Tuesday, June 23, 2020[109] | Phoenix | Maricopa County | AZ | DreamJoe |
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City Foss Church Hangar | |||||
Monday, August 17, 2020[110] | Mankato | Blue Earth County | 64,013 | MN | Mankato Regional Airport |
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Blue Earth sees a rise in cases 10 days after the rally. Brown sees a rise in cases 26 days after the rally. Faribault sees a rise in cases around 12-14 days | ||||||||
Monday, August 17, 2020[111] | Oshkosh | Winnebago County | 171907 (several hundred) | WI | Oshkosh airway | Fond Du Lac, Outagamie and Winnebago's daily confirmed cases roughly doubled 12 days after the rally, and continued to rise. | ||
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Tuesday, August 18, 2020[112] | Yuma | Yuma County | 195795 | AZ | Joe Foss Hangar | |||
Thursday, August 20, 2020[113] | Old Forge | Lackawanna County | 209674 | PA | Mariotti Building Products | |||
Friday, August 28, 2020[114] | Londonderry | Rockingham County | 309769 (1400) | NH | Pro Star Aviation | |||
Thursday, September 3, 2020[115] | Latrobe | Westmoreland County | 348899 | PA | Arnold Palmer Regional Airport |
Tuesday, September 8, 2020[116] | Winston-Salem | Forsyth County | 382295 | NC | Smith Reynolds Airport | |||
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Thursday, September 10, 2020[117] | Freeland | Saginaw County | 190539 | MI | Avflight Saginaw |
Saturday, September 12, 2020[118] | Indoors | Douglas County | 48905 | NV | Minden-Tahoe Airport | There is a rise in cases in 4 of the 5 counties starting a few days after the rally. | ||
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Sunday, September 13, 2020[119] | Henderson | Clark County | 2.28 million (5600) | NV | Xtreme Manufacturing | Clark, Mohave, and Nye counties all see a rise in confirmed cases starting between the 17th and 20th of September. | ||
Friday, September 18, 2020[120] | Bemidji | Beltrami County | 47188 | MN | Bemidji Aviation Services | |||
Friday, September 18, 2020[121] | Mosinee | Marathon County | 135692 | WI | Central Wisconsin Aviation |
Method
We are interested in whether some of these events may have served as 'super-spreader' events. To reduce the number of events and thus make the charts easier (fewer overlapping lines) to follow we organize the events by month.
The raw data we analyze is the Johns Hopkins University daily confirmed cases data for the US available at: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
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The social distancing at the rallies was minimal, and not everyone wore masks, see the photos below taken at the Oshkosh rally.
Impacted counties
We look at the adjacent counties in the same state (using https://gisgeography.com/us-county-map/) we see the following counties:
Douglas County NV | Clark County NV | Winnebago WI | Blue Earth MN | Lackawanna PA | Rockingham NH |
Marathon County WI 9/17/2020 | Yuma county AZ 8/18/2020 | Westmoreland PA 9/3/2020 | Forsyth NC 9/8/2020 | Saginaw MI 9/10/2020 | Beltrami County MN 9/18/2020 |
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First, we just look at the number of daily confirmed cases for the county in which the event was held.
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The smoothed daily confirmed cases indicated marked increases in the cases as follows
County State date of event date of a noticeable increase in cases magnitude of increase delay peak Blue Earth Minnesota 8/17/2020 8/27/2020 3x increase in cases/day 10 days 9/03/2020 Lackawanna Pennsylvania 8/20/2020 8/29/2020 3x increase in cases/day 9 days 9/04-15/2020 Rockingham New Hampshire 8/28/2020 9/10/2020 2x increase in cases/day
13 days 9/12-17/2020 Winnebago Wisconsin 8/17/2020 8/28/2020 2.5x increase in cases/day 11 days 9/18/20 Westmoreland Pennsylvania 9/3/2020 9/12/2020 No apparent increase Saginaw Michigan 9/10/2020 No apparent increase Douglas Nevada 9/12/2020 Marathon Wisconsin 9/17/2020 The sharp rise in Winnebago county from about 12 confirmed cases/day before the rally to over 80 new daily cases reported on 8/19/2020 is a concern.
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Douglas County NV
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Clark County NV
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Blue Earth MN
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Rockingham NH
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And the confirmed cases for those counties is below, the dates in the title boxes are the date of the rally.
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Mankato, Blue Earth County, MN 8/17/2020 | Old Forge, Lakawanna County, PA 8/20/2020 | Rockingham, Londonderry, NH 8/28/2020 | |||
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Observations:
| Observations:
| Observations:
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Marathon County WI 9/17/2020 | Yuma county AZ 8/18/2020 | Westmoreland PA 9/3/2020 | Forsyth NC 9/8/2020 | Saginaw MI 9/10/2020 | Beltrami County MN 9/18/2020 |
Also see
- https://time.com/5865890/oklahoma-covid-19-trump-tulsa-rally/
- https://www.axios.com/trump-rally-fined-violating-covid-guidelines-1566236b-0177-4407-b139-a7f69c11db66.html
- https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/nevada-health-officials-predict-uptick-in-covid-19-cases-following-labor-day-weekend-crowds-trump-rallie
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