10 days later.The list of rallies is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_post-election_Donald_Trump_rallies where I have added the county, its population, and where available, estimates of the number of attendees.
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The raw data we analyze is the Johns Hopkins University daily confirmed cases data for the US available at: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
The question is whether there was a significant rise in confirmed Covid-19 cases after the rally, in particular in the 2-14 days following the rally (according to the CDC, Sep 18, 2020: "Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after you were exposed to COVID-19".
The social distancing at the rallies was minimal, and not everyone wore masks, see the photos below taken at the Oshkosh rally.
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The smoothed daily confirmed cases indicated marked increases in the cases as follows
County State date of event date of a noticeable increase in cases magnitude of increase delay peak Blue Earth Minnesota 8/17/2020 8/27/2020 3x increase in cases/day 10 days 9/03/2020 Lackawanna Pennsylvania 8/20/2020 8/29/2020 3x increase in cases/day 9 days 9/04-15/2020 Rockingham New Hampshire 8/28/2020 9/10/2020 2x increase in cases/day
13 days 9/12-17/2020 Winnebago Wisconsin 8/17/2020 8/28/2020 2.5x increase in cases/day 11 days 9/18/20 Westmoreland Pennsylvania 9/3/2020 9/12/2020 No apparent increase Saginaw Michigan 9/10/2020 No apparent increase Douglas Nevada 9/12/2020 Marathon Wisconsin 9/17/2020 The sharp rise in Winnebago county from about 12 confirmed cases/day before the rally to over 80 new daily cases reported on 8/19/2020 is a concern.
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Mankato, Blue Earth County, MN 8/17/2020 | Old Forge, Lakawanna County, PA 8/20/2020 | Rockingham, Londonderry, NH 8/28/2020 |
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Observations:
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Marathon County WI | |||
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Marathon County WI 9/17/2020 | |||
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Also see
- https://time.com/5865890/oklahoma-covid-19-trump-tulsa-rally/
- https://www.axios.com/trump-rally-fined-violating-covid-guidelines-1566236b-0177-4407-b139-a7f69c11db66.html
- https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/nevada-health-officials-predict-uptick-in-covid-19-cases-following-labor-day-weekend-crowds-trump-ralliesrallie