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Date of rally

CityCounty

County population

(attendees)

StateVenueOther speakers
Saturday, June 20, 2020[108]TulsaTulsa County(6200)OKBOK CenterLara Trump, Eric Trump, Mike Pence, Diamond and Silk, Kimberly Guilfoyle, T. W. Shannon
Tuesday, June 23, 2020[109]PhoenixMaricopa County
AZDreamJoe CityFoss ChurchHangarDonald Trump Jr., Kimberly Guilfoyle, Charlie Kirk
Monday, August 17, 2020[110]MankatoBlue Earth County64,013MNMankato Regional Airport
Monday, August 17, 2020[111]OshkoshWinnebago County171907
(several hundred)		WIOshkosh airway
Tuesday, August 18, 2020[112]YumaYuma County195795AZJoe Foss Hangar
Thursday, August 20, 2020[113]Old Forge

Lackawanna County

209674PAMariotti Building Products
Friday, August 28, 2020[114]LondonderryRockingham County

309769

(1400)

NHPro Star Aviation
Thursday, September 3, 2020[115]LatrobeWestmoreland County348899PAArnold Palmer Regional AirportSean Parnell
Tuesday, September 8, 2020[116]Winston-SalemForsyth County

382295

(several thousand)

NCSmith Reynolds Airport
Thursday, September 10, 2020[117]FreelandSaginaw County190539MIAvflight SaginawJohn E. James
Saturday, September 12, 2020[118]

Minden

Indoors

Douglas County

48905

(thousands)

NVMinden-Tahoe Airport
Sunday, September 13, 2020[119]HendersonClark County

2.28 million

(5600)

NVXtreme Manufacturing
Friday, September 18, 2020[120]BemidjiBeltrami County47188MNBemidji Aviation Services
Friday, September 18, 2020[121]MosineeMarathon County135692WICentral Wisconsin Aviation

...

If we extend the impact and look at the adjacent counties in the same state (using https://gisgeography.com/us-county-map/) we see the following counties.

Douglas County NV

Clark County NV

Winnebago WI

Blue Earth MN

Lackawanna PA

Rockingham NH

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And the confirmed cases for those counties is below.

Minden, Douglas County, NV 9/12/2020Henderson, Clark County, NV 9/13/2020Oshkosh, Winnebago County, WI 8/17/2020

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Observations:

  • There is a rise in cases in 4 of the 5
  • counties starting a few days after the rally.

Observations:

  • No rise in cases yet.

Observations:

  • Fond Du Lac, Outagamie and Winnebago's daily confirmed cases roughly doubled  12 days after the rally, and continued to rise.


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Mankato, Blue Earth County, MN 8/17/2020

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Old Forge, Lakawanna County, PA 8/20/2020Rockingham, Londonderry, NH 8/28/2020
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Observations:

  • Blue Earth sees a rise in cases 10 days after the rally.
  • Brown sees a rise in cases 26 days after the rally.
  • Faribault sees a rise in cases around 12-14 days
    after the rally.
  • Le Sueur sees a rise in cases 3-4 days after the rally
    that rises to a peak after 11-12 days after the rally
    and then falls. We assume this not likely to be
    associated with the rally.
  • Martin sees a rise in cases 12 days after the rally
    with a peak at 17 days, followed by a dip and then
    a larger rise in cases.
  • Nicollet sees no apparent rise in cases.
  • Waseca cases are on a rising slope when the
    rally occurs, this plateaus after 4 days
    until day 17 when it again rises
  • Watonwan is very variable so no conclusions are made

  • There is a rise in confirmed cases for all
    counties, 5-14 days following the rally.

Also see