Covid-19 Worldwide situation at the start of February 2021

Table of Contents

Introduction

We review the confirmed cases and deaths per capita for the countries with the highest confirmed cases per capita on February 1st, 2021.

Methodology

We are using the Johns Hopkins University (JHU)  data compilations of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths for countries of the world  (see https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv and https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv).  From these data we extract the data for 164 countries and create charts of the daily 7 day smoothed daily confirmed cases and deaths per million population  by country,  as well as the cumulated confirmed cases and deaths per million population by country. The charts are created using the Perl Excel package (see https://metacpan.org/pod/Excel::Writer::XLSX::Chart)

Leading countries in Confirmed cases  & Deaths from Jan 1, 2021 thru Feb 1, 2021

The cumulative confirmed cases and Deaths for the top 10 countries in Confirmed cases from the start of the Pandemic thru Feb 1, 2021 

N.b. Belgium does not show up in the charts in this and the following section since it was not one of the top 10 countries with cumulative cases per capita on Feb. 1, 2021

Cumulative Confirmed cases per capita since Jan 2020	Cumulative Deaths per capita since Jan 2020

The 7 days smoothed daily Confirmed cases and Deaths for the top 10 countries in Confirmed cases on Feb 1, 2021

Maps of daily Confirmed cases and Deaths for countries of the world on Feb 1, 2021

Correlation between Deaths and Confirmed cases per capita 

As expected larger per capita deaths result in larger residuals where
Resdual=(Observed_deaths-Fitted_deaths),
and
Fitted_deaths = 0.211 x Observed_deaths (from the R2 analysis).
Therefore we also plotted the Relative residuals where
Relative_residual= (Observed_deaths-Fitted_deaths)/Observed_deaths)

We also provide a histogram of the Relative residuals below:

Conclusions

• As of Feb 1, 2021 
  
  • Montenegro followed by the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Luxembourg and. the US had the highest cumulated confirmed cases per capita.
  • In terms of cumulative deaths per capita, Belgium led the way followed by Slovenia, UK, Czech Republic, Italy, Bosnia Herzegovina, Macedonia and the US.
  • Portugal had the highest daily confirmed cases and deaths per capita as of Feb 1s, 2021. However, it had not caught up to the leaders in cumulated cases per capita.
  • In both daily and cumulative cases and deaths per capita, European countries and the US dominate the leading countries, the only outside countries showing up are Lebanon and Israel.
  • As would be expected there is a strong correlation (R² = 0.7679) between deaths and confirmed cases per capita.
  • The worldwide ratio of deaths to confirmed cases is about 2.1% as indicated by the R² trendline between deaths and confirmed cases per capita as of Feb. 1st 2021

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