We compare COVD-19 daily confirmed cases per Million population (Mpop) for July 13, 2021 as recorded by Johns Hopkins University (JHU) for European countries and compare it with various demographics and metrics.
Demographics
| Demographics | Correlation Coefficient | Source of Demographic |
|---|---|---|
| Health costs per capita $ | 1.1% | https://www.oecd.org/health/health-data.htm |
| Income per capita $ | 3.4% | |
| Median age years | 1.42% | https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/ |
| Pupulation density / sq km | 10% | https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/ (for population) and https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ for area |
Metrics
| Metric | Source of Metric |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 vaccine doses / 100 people | https://www.statista.com/statistics/1196071/covid-19-vaccination-rate-in-europe-by-country/ |
| % delta variant in last 4 weeks. | https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ |
% Delta variant
I can find no delta variant data for Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria. Croatia, Cyprus, Czeck Republic, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, or Turkey.
- According to https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/224113/coronavirus-infections-rising-exponentially-england-react/ the % delta variant is increasing by a factor of 2 in 11 days.
For the US, Fauci says % delta variant is doubling in US every 2 weeks (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/06/22/fauci-delta-variant-doubling-in-us-every-two-weeks-in-greatest-threat-to-eradicating-covid/?sh=633ad681777d)
- The 7 day smoothed daily confirmed cases per Mpop increases with the % Delta variant, with the UK leading.
- The Pearson correlation coefficient indicates a 21% association between the daily confirmed cases per Mpop and the % Delta variant.
- See https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57489740 for a discussion of why the COVID-19 variant has spread so quickly in the UK.
The Western and Southern European nations lead in numbers of cases (NL, ES, UK, PT, MT, BE, IE, DK are all above 100 daily confirmed cases).
- For the Scandinavian countries Norway and Sweden are very similar but not Denmark. There is no % Delta variant data for Finland.
Vaccine doses per 100 population
The increase in cases with increased vaccination is driven by the Western & Southern European nations: UK, NL, ES, PT, LU, BE, and IE. AT, DE and to a lesser extent CH buck this trend.
If one removes the Western & Southern European nations then the slope changes sign, see below:
Further investigation reveals close by nations cluster together, e.g.( FI, NO, SE, LT ), (HR, RS)