Linear Extrapolation
Simple The author's simple linear extrapolations of the COVID19 confirmed cases and deaths for the US between August 1st 2020 and September 10, 2020 from the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) COVID-19 database yield almost 300,000 deaths and 11.3 million confirmed cases by the end of 2020:
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See http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/briefing_US_091120.pdfT
This looks at the current state and the trends in key drivers of transmission (mobility, mask use, testing, and seasonality). They expect the daily death rate in the US, because of seasonality and declining public vigilance, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 415,090; this is 222,522 deaths from now until the end of the year; or over 120,000 deaths more than the simple linear exptrapolationextrapolation above. The following comments from the forecast are very cogent.
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