...
Fig 6b shows the cases and deaths vs the average date (The GSAID data gives a range of dates so we take the mid dats)
| Fig 6a | Fig 6b |
|---|---|
  |
|
Impact of vaccinations in US
Looking at Fig 7 one can see the top 20 states by daily confirmed cases on 7/21/2021. The shift to weekly instead of daily reporting in Florida (FL) (also Nebraska (NE), Iowa (IA) and South Dakota (SD) have done this) results in delayed reporting of surges (e.g. Florida updated its cases an increase in daily cases per Mpop from 320/day to 515/day on 7/23/2021 i.e. a 60% surge in reported cases) and a step function like curve. Figure 8 shows a scatter plot of COVID-19 confirmed cases vs the fraction of the population fully vaccinated on 7/22/2021, the bubbles are colored by the presidential candidate who won the state and the size of the bubble is proportional to the population, the two letter acronym for many states is included, the formula is the formula for the Pearson trendline (shown in blue dots) and the correlation R2.
| Fig 7 | Fig 98 |
|---|---|
|
|
Fig 9 plots the US daily confirmed cases and deaths against the % population vaccinated. Fig 10 plots the daily confirmed cases and deaths versus the date. It is seen that as the % of the vaccinated population increases the daily cases and deaths decrease, however as one gets to July the confirmed cases start to increase. Looking at Fig this is when the Delta variant % start to exceed 60%.
...
- US Daily COVID-19 Confirmed cases have increased by over a factor of 3 in the 3 weeks between July 1 and July 21st.
- The US % of cases that are the more contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 was first noticed (0.1% cases) in mid-April 2013 and has increased roughly exponentially with time until by July 21st it was over 83% of the cases.
- The impact of the delta variant on an increase in cases and deaths was hardly noticeable until the delta variant cases exceeded 60%.
- The fraction of the variability of the dependent variable (Y = COVID-19 confirmed cases on 7/22/2021) that is explained by the independent variable (X = Fraction of the US state's fully vaccinated population) is ~ 37% (the R2 correlation factor)
- States that voted in 2020 for Trump (red states), in general, have lower vaccination fractions (0.42+-0.05) vs Biden blue states (0.54+-0.06), and states that voted for Trump have higher COVID-19 confirmed cases (174+-121) than states that voted for Biden (85+-62).
...
Also see https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0329-COVID-19-Vaccines.html and https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html