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See http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/briefing_US_091120.pdfT
This looks at the current state and the trends in key drivers of transmission (mobility, mask use, testing, and seasonality). They expect the daily death rate in the US, because of seasonality and declining public vigilance, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 415,090; this is 222,522 deaths from now until the end of the year; or over 120,000 deaths more than the simple linear extrapolation. The following comments from the forecast are very cogent.
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