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There are many models predicting the short term deaths, in particular, see https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/ for listing and comparing multiple short-term predictions of the number of Americans who will die due to COVID-19. Longer-term, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released its latest pandemic forecast on September 11, 2020. 

University of Washington pandemic forecast

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This looks at the current state and the trends in key drivers of transmission (mobility, mask use, testing, and seasonality). They expect the daily death rate in the US, because of seasonality and declining public vigilance, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 415,090; this is 222,522 deaths from now until the end of the year; or over 120,000 deaths more than the simple linear exptrapolation.  The following comments from the forecast are very relevantcogent.

• "The large increase in daily deaths expected in late November and December is driven by continued increases in mobility, declines in mask use, and – most importantly – seasonality. We estimate the likely impact of seasonality by examining the trends in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. For example, Southern Hemisphere countries such as Argentina, Chile, southern Brazil, and South Africa had much larger epidemics than expected based on mobility, testing, and mask use. The statistical association between COVID-19 transmission rates and pneumonia seasonality patterns is strong and is the basis for our estimate of the magnitude of the seasonal increase that is expected. • If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1, then the death toll could increase to 611,784 by January 1. Compared to the reference scenario, this would be 196,694 more deaths from now to the end of the year. 
• Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the US. Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative US death toll to 298,589, or 116,501 lives saved compared to the reference scenario."

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