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There are many models predicting the short term deaths, in particular, see https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/ for listing and comparing multiple short-term predictions of the number of Americans who will die due to COVID-19. Longer-term, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released its latest pandemic forecast September on September 11, 2020.
Include Page COVID-19 Simple linear extrapolation of cases for the US COVID-19 Simple linear extrapolation of cases for the US
University of Washington pandemic forecast
See http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/briefing_US_091120.pdfT
This looks at the current state and the trends in key drivers of transmission (mobility, mask use, testing, and seasonality). They expect the daily death rate in the US, because of seasonality and declining public vigilance, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 415,090; this is 222,522 deaths from now until the end of the year.
Top 9 US States by Positivity Rate 9/8/2020
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