Top 9 US States by Positivity
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Rate 9/8/2020
The positivity rate is "the percentage of positive cases among those who are tested". See https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/07/13/what-exactly-does-the-covid-19-positivity-rate-tell-us/ for / or https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/health/coronavirus-positivity-rate-explainer/index.html for more information. The following chart showing the positivity rate for US states is from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity where its is stated "On May 12, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) advised governments that before reopening, rates of positivity in testing (ie, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) of should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days."
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The top 9 states are shown below ranked by their Positivity Rate (from https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity 9/8/2020) together with some demographics and statistics. The smoothing is a 7 day moving average.
- The population is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population,
- the political leaning is from www.270towin.com,
- the Income per capita is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_income.
| State | ID | Population | Positivity | Covid-19 confirmed so far | deaths so far | %deaths/ confirmed | confirmed/ MPop so far | deaths/ MPop so far | smoothed (daily Confirmed/ MPop) | smoothed (daily Deaths/ MPop) | Political leaning | Income per capita ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota | ND | 756927 | 19.58% | 13872 | 156 | 1.12 | 18326.7343 | 206.0965 | 353.3083 | 2.076064 | Swing | 33071 |
| South Dakota | SD | 858469 | 18.73% | 15403 | 173 | 1.12 | 17942.4068 | 201.5215 | 275.2408 | 0.99845539 | Republican | 26959 |
| Alabama | AL | 4858979 | 18.42% | 133606 | 2277 | 1.7 | 27496.7231 | 468.617 | 176.1099 | 2.263850 | Republican | 23606 |
| Kansas | KS | 2911641 | 18.36% | 56854 | 579 | 1.02 | 19526.4457 | 198.8569 | 224.5175 | 2.5513348 | Republican | 27870 |
| Mississippi | MS | 2992333 | 17.28% | 89069 | 2619 | 2.94 | 29765.738 | 875.2368 | 186.0469 | 4.965070 | Republican | 21036 |
| Iowa | IA | 3123899 | 15.31% | 71142 | 1185 | 1.67 | 22773.4635 | 379.3336 | 236.6091 | 2.7438239 | Swing | 28361 |
| Idaho | ID | 1654930 | 14.78% | 33978 | 389 | 1.14 | 20531.382 | 235.0553 | 140.2735 | 1.8990876 | Republican | 23938 |
| Missouri | MO | 6083672 | 14.5% | 96181 | 1690 | 1.76 | 15809.6952 | 277.7928 | 221.7411 | 3.0057034 | Republican | 26126 |
| Florida | FL | 20271272 | 13.32% | 650092 | 11915 | 1.83 | 32069.6205 | 587.7776 | 134.2646 | 3.8125735 | Swing | 26582 |
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| Covid-19 smoothed confirmed cases per day per million population | Covid-19 smoothed deaths per day per million population |
|---|---|
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Details about the impact of Covid-19 on the US states can be found via https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States_by_state
Observations:
- Florida reported its first cases 3/3/20 and its first death 3/8/20, the latter date being the same day that Kansas and Missouri announced their first confirmed cases. None of the other 6 states had any confirmed cases by this date.
- As would be expected since Florida has over three times the population of any of the other states, its confirmed cases and. deaths lead the way by a wide margin.
- In terms of deaths/confirmed cases Missouri led until the end of July when Mississippi took the lead.
- When one normalizes cases by the population of each state, then the confirmed cases and deaths are more evenly spread, and none of the states has flattened its curve of confirmed cases.
- Idaho appears to have managed to flatten its curve of deaths/million population after 5/11/20 until 7/15/20 when it took off again.
- Florida, Mississippi and Alabama appear to have a peak in daily confirmed cases two to three weeks after the July 4th holiday. There is a further rise in daily confirmed cases for North and South Dakota, Iowa and Alabama towards the end of August.
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