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Comment: Reverted from v. 35

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Note that for  Europe, US and Canada the Christmas/New Year season (end November thru 2nd week in January) may also be expected to change behaviors.

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Other milestones are the social impacts that are more likely to impact the internet traffic. These include the social interventions:

  • Social distancing encouraged
  • Case-based measures
  • School closures
  • Public events banned
  • Lockdown
  • Interventions removed

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  • Number of days to double cases
  • Basic reproduction number R0 the average number of secondary infections produced by an infectious case where everyone is susceptible.
    • For R >1 each individual infected by a transmissible disease is expected to infect a number of individuals that increase exponentially. For R< each case transmit the disease to less than one individual and the disease dies out.
  • Control reproductive number RC, the value of R in the presence of control measures.
  • Incubation period
  • Risk of importationPrpjections on: all beds needed, ICU beds needed, invasive ventilators needed.

Monitoring

The PingER monitor at SLAC, Stanford University in California currently monitors about 100 hosts in China. Using the pingtable.pl web page we selected daily aggregated data from SLAC to China for the last 365 days and looked at various metrics derived from the RTTs. Since many of the targets are Universities that may have taken lockdown measures and sent many students and staff home, we decided to look at the overall impact on SLAC to China pings. To do this we scroll down the pingtable.pl page to summary tables as shown below.    

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