Introduction
The data is from Johns Hopkins University(JHU) (see https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19). We are interested in the apparent dramatic difference in the US and Chinese Covid-19 cases.
- For China, we look at the cases: for all of mainland China, and for just the epi-center province of Hubei.
- For the US, we look at the cases: for all of the US, and for just California.
We are interested in the apparent dramatic difference in the US and Chinese Covid-19 cases. We show both Confirmed cases and Deaths.The table below shows some metrics for December 5, 2020.
| Metric | China | Hubei | % Hubei/China | US | California | % California/US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 1,439,343,000 | 59,020,000 | 4.1% | 331,020,000 | 39,145,000 | 12% |
| Cumulative cases reported | 92,993 | 68,149 | 73% | 14,367,462 | 1,337,941 | 9% |
| Deaths reported | 4743 | 4,512 | 95% | 278,932 | 19,870 | 7% |
| % Deaths/Cumulative cases | 5.1% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | ||
| Cumulative Confirmed cases/million population | 65 | 1,155 | 44,052 | 34,179 | ||
| Cumulative Deaths/million population | 3.3 | 77 | 849 | 508 |
Note that Hubei province with ~58.5 million people contributed over 70% of Chinese confirmed cases and 95% of Chinese deaths, even though Hubei has less than 5% of China's population.
We look at confirmed cases and deaths per capita, both cumulatively and daily. The charts are created in Excel. using the Perl Excel:Writer package (https://metacpan.org/pod/Excel::Writer::XLSX). The Excel data and charts files can be found at https://www-iepm.slac.stanford.edu/pinger/excel.
| Daily Confirmed cases | Cumulative Confirmed cases | i-Cumulative Deaths |
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At first glimpse, there is a dramatic difference between China and the US. The maximum daily peaks for the US and California are almost ten times that for Hubei province China, or about 200 times that for all China. The cumulative deaths per million population for California are about seven times higher than for Hubei province and the US cumulative deaths per million population are about 300 times greater than China's.
There are possible explanations for this discrepancyTB including:
- Culture (e.g. greater good vs. individualism, compliance to mask-wearing, parents living with children rather than in nursing homes), centralized epidemic response system (e.g. ability to impose lockdowns).
- "Two-thirds of the discrepancy in Covid-19 cases and deaths in the US and China may reflect the advantage of the Chinese authoritarian regime in mobilizing public collective action as well as the public minimization of the health hazards by President Trump".AK
- Anecdotal evidence of under-reporting of deaths by China: "The cover-up of information about deaths by the CCP in the initial outbreak period during the first third of 2020 raises the suspicion that at least part of the better Chinese performance since April is due to under-reporting of deaths. Some counterfactual thought experiments imply that, at most, one-third of the discrepancy between the US and China since April may be due to under-reporting" AK.
A second discrepancy is the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases. China's ratio is 2-3 times greater than the US. Some reasons may include: "Inadequate testing, ageing populations and overwhelmed health systems" DH. Another reason, in this case, is due to when the major cases occurred. The majority of China's cases occurred early on in February and March 2020 when little was known about the virus, and how to treat it, whereas the US cases did not start to take off until the end of March and have increased dramatically since then. As can be seen in the charts below, the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases drops for all major counties as one gets to June and beyond.
| Comparison of the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases for China and the US | Comparison of the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases for the top 30 countries in terms of cumulative confirmed cases |
|---|---|
 |  |
Also see:
- https://news.northeastern.edu/2020/06/26/new-cases-of-the-coronavirus-in-china-leveled-off-in-less-than-a-month-of-restrictions-why-hasnt-the-us-had-the-same-success/,June 26, 2020
- https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/04/blaming-china-dangerous-distraction?gclid=CjwKCAiA_Kz-BRAJEiwAhJNY7_qAJ-2zA3hSR4EYOY8zPmpdefHerNm4wLrMsLMffsQtlvQMSIhFUBoCI50QAvD_BwE, April 15, 2020.
References
TB "China's successful control of Covid-19" Talka Burki, Lancet Vol. 20 Issue 11, November 1, 2020. See https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30800-8/fulltext
AK "Why is COVID-19 incidence in authoritarian China so much lower than in the democratic US: Effectiveness of collective action or Chinese cover-up?" Alex Cuckierman, October 26, 2020. See https://voxeu.org/content/why-covid-19-incidence-authoritarian-china-so-much-lower-democratic-us-effectiveness-collective-action-or-chinese-cover.
DH "Why does the coronavirus fatality rate differ so much around the world?", Doug Hendrie, April 30, 2020. See https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/why-does-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate-differ-so-much