COVID-19 daily confirmed cases in the US are falling (although slowly) as vaccinations percentages increase.
The chart below shows the daily confirmed cases vs the % vaccinated with the bubble areas being proportional to the state's population and colored by the US region. Also seen are exponential fits to the data. Most states are identified by their 2 character codes.
The table below shows the Pearson R2 (see https://thestatsninja.com/2018/11/01/interpreting-trend-lines-and-greek-letters/) for linear and exponential fits.
| Exponential | Linear | ||
| Region | Number of States | R^2 | R^2 |
| Middle Atlantic | 3 | 0.627 | 0.606 |
| Midwest | 11 | 0.046 | 0.002 |
| Mountain | 8 | 0.441 | 0.229 |
| New England | 6 | 0.773 | 0.773 |
| Pacific | 5 | 0.016 | 0.015 |
| South | 18 | 0.285 | 0.275 |
| All | 51 | 0.255 |
Summary
- In general the exponential fits are slightly better than the linear.
- It is seen that COVID-19 daily confirmed cases in the US fall as the % vaccinations percentages increase.
- The high caseload for low vaccination counties in the South (LA, MI, AR, AL, SC, TN, GE) is about double that elsewhere.
- Florida, even though it has 60% full vaccination, has a very high caseload. Could this have anything to do with Florida's anti mask-mandate?