We look at the correlations between daily confirmed cases, delta virus, and full vaccinations in the US, Canada, and western Europe.
Confirmed cases vs Date
Figs 1 and 2 show the daily confirmed cases by date both as a log-linear chart and linear-linear chart. It is seen that the cases are decreasing daily or steady, but then start to increase slowly at first, but then more rapidly, with some including the Netherlands (falling by 7/26/21), Spain and the UK (falling by 8/7/21) reaching a peak and falling. The dates for when the increase started are shown in Table 1.
| Fig 1 log-linear | Fig 2 linear-linear |
|
|
Table 1
| Date first noticed cases increasing | Countries |
| 5/17/21 | UK |
| 5/31/21 | Portugal |
| 6/14/21 | US |
| 6/28/21 | Ireland |
| 7/11/21 | Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain |
| 7/26/21 | Norway, Sweden |
Delta variant versus date
Fig 3 shows in a log (delta variant) linear plot the exponential rise of the variant with time, with the UK leading the way.
| Fig 3 log-linear | Fig 4 linear-linear |
|---|---|
|
|
Vaccinated vs date
The US and UK led the way early on in getting vaccinated, however since reaching 40% the rate has slowed in particular for the US.
Norway, Sweden have also noticed a slow down in their vaccination rates and have the lowest vaccination rates followed by the US and France.
Confirmed cases vs delta variant
Fig 6 the log-log plot illustrates how there appears to be negligible impact on increasing the daily confirmed cases until the delta variant exceeds around 60%.
| Fig 5 log-linear | Fig 6 log-log |
|---|---|
|
|
Confirmed vs vaccinated
Cases continue to rise in all countries except the UK. Belgium leads the way in % vaccinations followed by Germany and the UK.
Summary
- Daily confirmed cases were dropping or steady up until May 2021, when the UK's began (5/17/21) to increase followed by Portugal (5/31/21), the US (6/14/21), Ireland (6/25/21), Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy Netherlands, and Spain), followed by Norway and Sweden (76/21). The cases increase slowly at first then more rapidly
- A few countries passed a peak and started falling including the Netherlands (falling by 7/26/21), Spain and the UK (falling by 8/7/21).
The US and UK led the way early on in getting vaccinated, however since reaching 40% their rates have slowed in particular for the US.
Norway, Sweden have also noticed a slow down in their vaccination rates and have the lowest vaccination rates followed by the US and France.
- There appears to be negligible impact on increasing the daily confirmed cases until the delta variant reaches and exceeds around 60%.
- Cases continue to rise in all countries except the UK.
- Belgium leads the way in % vaccinations followed by Germany and the UK. After this, the order is Italy, Spain, Portugal, Austria, and the US.