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  • inventory of existing hardware
  • model for retirement vs time
  • model for project needs vs time

A python script has been developed to do the modeling. We are using "CPU factor" as the computing unit to account for differing oomphs of the various node types in the farm.

Purchase Record of Existing Hardware

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 In practice, we may adopt a hybrid of these two, especially since a strict age cutoff would make sudden drops in capacity, given our acquisition history.

There are industry estimates for survival rates vs time.

Age cut:

Using a strict 5 year cut, here is the survival rate of the existing hardware (in 2019 it is all gone):

Year

#hosts

#cores

kiso-units

SLAC-units

2013

729

7164

7433

90698

2014

427

4848

5366

65476

2015

179

2864

3284

40067

2016

179

2864

3284

40067

2017

179

2864

3284

40067

2018

179

2864

3284

40067

Basically by the end of 2014, all hardware before the bullet purchase would have been retired.

DNR model:

None are allowed after 10 years.

Year

#hosts

#cores

kiso-units

SLAC-units

2013

729

7164

7433

90698

2014

652

6568

6862

83744

2015

575

5968

6288

76736

2016

499

5376

5718

69789

2017

420

4792

5166

63039

2018

337

3944

4275

52183

2019

203

2688

3024

36908

2020

110

1760

2018

24622

2021

87

1392

1596

19474

2022

67

1072

1229

14997

2023

49

784

899

10968

Needs Estimation

PPA projects were polled for their projected needs over the next few years. This is recapped here.