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- Social distancing encouraged
- Case-based measures
- School and college closures
- Public events banned
- Lockdown
- Interventions removed
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- Number of days to double cases
- Basic reproduction number R0 the average number of secondary infections produced by an infectious case where everyone is susceptible.
- For R >1 each individual infected by a transmissible disease is expected to infect a number of individuals that increase exponentially. For R<1, each case transmits the disease to less than one individual and the disease dies out.
- Control reproductive number RC, the value of R in the presence of control measures.
- Incubation period
- Risk of importation
- Projections on: all beds needed, ICU beds needed, invasive ventilators needed.
- 20% daily growth = cases or deaths double in < 4 days
Monitoring
The PingER monitor at SLAC, Stanford University in California currently monitors about 100 hosts in China. Using the pingtable.pl web page we selected daily aggregated data from SLAC to China for the last 365 days and looked at various metrics derived from the RTTs. Since many of the targets are Universities that may have taken lockdown measures and sent many students and staff home, we decided to look at the overall impact on SLAC to China pings. To do this we scroll down the pingtable.pl page to summary tables as shown below. 
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Using Motion Charts to look at PingER data by metric versus Covid cases
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Examining using PingER metrics from pingtable.pl
Impact by region
See Using Chart.ca for how to make your own motion charts, and an example. Note since the Covid-19 data for the USA and Austrailia are only available by state and for China are only available by province we currently have not included those countries. Some examples are below
| PingER Metric raw daily | Covid-19 Confirmed (Selected) | Covid-19 Deaths (Selected) | Covid-19 Confirmed (Europe) | Covid-19 Confirmed (Africa) | Covid-Confirmed (Latin America) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ipdv or jitter (msec) | Motion | Motion | Motion | Motion | |
| Throughput (kbps) | |||||
| Average RTT (msec) | Motion | ||||
| Unpredictability (%) |
We repeated the above except:
- To smooth out the PingER data we used a running average of the data over the last 7 days,
- Also rather than displaying the bubble size as proportional to the population, we made the bubble size proportional to Population in thousands / country's area.
PInger Metric running 7 day average | Covid-19 Confirmed (Selected) | Covid-19 Deaths (Selected) | Covid-19 Confirmed (Europe) | Covid-19 Confirmed (Africa) | Covid-Confirmed (Latin America) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ipdv or Jitter (msec) | Motion, Scatter | Motion | |||
| Throughput (kbps) | |||||
| Average RTT (msec) | |||||
| Unpredictability (%) |
- Motion chart of PingER IPDV (Inter Packet Delay Variability or Jitter) vs Covid-19 Confirmed cases with bubbles sized by population density for Latin America
- Motion chart of PingER IPDV (Inter Packet Delay Variability or Jitter) vs Covid-19 Confirmed cases with bubbles sized by population for selected countries colored by continent
- Motion chart of PingER IPDV (Inter Packet Delay Variability or Jitter) vs Covid-19 Confirmed cases with bubbles sized by population for Europe
- Motion chart of PIngER IPDV (Inter Packet Delay Variability or Jitter) vs Covid-19 Confirmed cases with bubbles sized by population for Africa.
- Motion chart of Pinger Average RTT vs Covid-19 Confirmed cases with bubbles sized by population for Africa.
Examining using PingER metrics from pingtable.pl
Impact by region
China and North America
Looking at the plot of daily average RTTs there is a peak (going from 145ms to 160ms) in minimum (average RTT) from Jan 10 to Jan 24th 2020, plus another spike on Feb 19.
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- Self isolation was mandated March 17
- Social distancing was encouraged March 9
- Public events were banned March 14
- School closure was ordered March 13
- Lockdown was ordered March 14.
More Information.
Models
- Imperial College reports:
- Covid-19 Projections Using Machine Learning for interventions in European, and some Asian countries.
- MIDAS Online portal for COVID-19 Modeling Research
Potential Long-term Intervention Strategies for COVID-19
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Timeline for Covid-19 Interventions by country.
Timeline of Covid-19 See https://covid19-interventions.com/ for interventions in European, and some Asian countries.
How Severe Are Coronavirus Outbreaks Across the U.S.? Look Up Any Metro Area, from the New York Times
Impact of Covid-19 on Internet traffic:
- https://blog.cloudflare.com/covid-19-impacts-on-internet-traffic-seattle-italy-and-south-korea/, March 13, 2020.
- From Speedtest see :https://www.speedtest.net/insights/blog/tracking-covid-19-impact-global-internet-performance/#/, March 13, 2020
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/snapshot-impact-covid-19-internet-traffic-levels-europe-hern%25C3%25A1ndez/, March 16, 2020
- https://www.expresscomputer.in/news/covid-19-impact-internet-exchange-operator-de-cix-india-reports-massive-increase-in-data-traffic/52860/, April 11, 2020
- https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/coronavirus-internet-speeds-slow-netflix-hotstar-amazon-prime-youtube-reduce-streaming-quality-6331237/, March 27, 2020
- https://corporate.comcast.com/covid-19/network?utm_medium=social-p&utm_source=facebook&utm_content=corp_covid-19_priority_facebook_phl%2Fdc%2Fsf_tot_fb%2Fig-feed_1&utm_campaign