Versions Compared

Key

  • This line was added.
  • This line was removed.
  • Formatting was changed.

...

For example, one might expect that as schools shut, people self-isolate, are sent home from, work from home, lockdowns are imposed etc., physical person-to-person communications would migrate to the Internet and will increase the use of the Internet e.g. by virtual learning, streaming. communicating, gathering information and entertaining for example.  The thought is that this will lead to different Internet patterns and possibly lead to Internet congestion. A study of the impact of COVID-19 on Internet speeds by Ookla  ("TRACKING COVID-19’S IMPACT ON GLOBAL INTERNET PERFORMANCE") is directly relevant, however,  it is hard to identify any dramatic impact on the latencies in the report. There is also COVID-19 impacts on Internet traffic: Seattle, Northern Italy, and South Korea which looks at the impact on Internet traffic volumes. Also companies such as Netflix, Amazon, Apple, Disney, Google have reduced the quality of their videos to help reduce traffic and congestion of the Internet (see https://www.traffic-masters.net/covid19-web-traffic-statistics/).

PingER uses the ping facility to measure the Round Trip Time (RTT) between about 20 monitoring sites and target hosts in over 160 countries (over 10,000 pairs of monitor-remote(target)_sites). Every 30 minutes the monitor monitoring agent sends up to 30 pings at one-second intervals to each target until there are 10 responses, and records the data which are daily gathered, archived, analyzed and presented at the SLA C archiving site.

...

  • For Europe, US and Canada the Christmas/New Year season (end November thru 2nd week in January) may also be expected to change behaviors, so comparing with data before the first cases (Nov-Jan) may be tricky.
  • The measurements are from SLAC which shut down on March 17th, 2020, so the traffic on its links may have dramatically decreased after that.
  • Utilization across networks and services has changed dramatically in terms of volumes, number of connections, utilization of links, interfaces, service endpoints. Most services are scaling up to handle the load. There are also many outages due to misconfiguration as people are trying to configure with configurations in production.
  • The links from SLAC use the well-provisioned ESnet network and beyond that academic networks such as Internet2 in the US, GEANT in Europe, APAN in Asia, thus the measurements from SLAC may not be fully representative. 
  • Many of the targets are academic establishments that may have been closed, thus the target itself may be lightly loaded and so respond more quickly than in the past.

...

  • Social distancing encouraged
  • Case-based measures
  • School and college closures
  • Public events banned
  • Lockdown
  • Interventions removed

Also, see See COVID 19 Internet Usage timeline for how companies have reduced their Internet traffic. Also see Akami sees 30 per cent surge in Internet traffic.

Statistics:

  • Number of days to double cases
  • Basic reproduction number R0 the average number of secondary infections produced by an infectious case where everyone is susceptible.
    • For R >1 each individual infected by a transmissible disease is expected to infect a number of individuals that increase exponentially. For R< R<1, each case transmit transmits the disease to less than one individual and the disease dies out.
  • Control reproductive number RC, the value of R in the presence of control measures.
  • Incubation period
  • Risk of importation
  • Proections Projections on: all beds needed, ICU beds needed, invasive ventilators needed.

Monitoring

  •   
  • 20% daily growth = cases or deaths double in < 4 days

Monitoring

The PingER The PingER monitor at SLAC, Stanford University in California currently monitors about 100 hosts in China. Using the pingtable.pl web page we selected daily aggregated data from SLAC to China for the last 365 days and looked at various metrics derived from the RTTs. Since many of the targets are Universities that may have taken lockdown measures and sent many students and staff home, we decided to look at the overall impact on SLAC to China pings. To do this we scroll down the pingtable.pl page to summary tables as shown below.    

...

Using Motion Charts to look at PingER data by metric versus Covid cases

...

...

Examining using PingER metrics from pingtable.pl

Impact by region

China

See Using Chart.ca for how to make your own motion charts, and an example. Note since the Covid-19 data for the USA and Austrailia are only available by state and for China are only available by province we currently have not included those countries. Some examples are below

PingER MetricCovid-19 Confirmed (Selected)Covid-19 Deaths (Selected)Covid-19 Confirmed (Europe)Covid-19 Confirmed (Africa)Covid-Confirmed (Latin America)
ipdv or jitter (msec)HereHereHereHere 
Throughput (kbps)   Here 
Average RTT   Here 
Unpredictability     
      

 

Examining using PingER metrics from pingtable.pl

Impact by region

China and North America

Looking at the plot of daily average RTTs there is a peak  (going from 145ms to 160ms) in minimum (average RTT) from Jan 10 to Jan 24th 2020, plus another spike on Feb 19.

...

  • Self isolation was mandated March 17
  • Social distancing was encouraged March 9
  • Public events were banned March 14
  • School closure was ordered March 13
  • Lockdown was ordered March 14.

More Information.

Models

Potential Long-term Intervention Strategies for COVID-19 

...

Timeline for Covid-19 Interventions by country.

Timeline of Covid-19 See https://covid19-interventions.com/ for interventions in European, and some Asian countries.

How Severe Are Coronavirus Outbreaks Across the U.S.? Look Up Any Metro Area, from the New York Times

Impact of Covid-19 on Internet traffic: