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"The modeled trajectory of this variant in the U.S. exhibits rapid growth in early 2021, becoming the predominant variant in March,” according to the CDC study released Friday Jan 15 [2]
Are the new strains more deadly
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Worldwide view
There is some evidence (see below) of an increase in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases for Denmark, South Africa, the UK and the US.starting December and January.
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| Country | minimum date (ratio) | maximum following minimum (ratio) | days between minimum and maximum | Increase in ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark (DK) | 12/21/2000 (0.76) | 2/12/2021 (1.12) | 53 days | 47% |
| United Kingdom (UK) | 1/17/2021 (2.61) | 3/3/2021 (2.95) | 45 days | 13% |
| United States (US) | 1/20/2021 (1.68) | 3/6/2021 (1.81) | 45 days | 7.7% |
| South Africa (ZA) | 12/27/2021 (2.66) | 3/10/2021 (3.35) | 73 days | 25% |
This increase of the ratio for the UK variant (DK< UK, US) in Denmark, the UK and the US is in line with the March 10 reported increases increased virulence of the new strain strain [4].
| Confirmed cases and deaths since Jan 2020 | Confirmed cases and deaths since November 1st 2020 |
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It is also seen that there has been an uptick in confirmed cases for Brazil, Finland, Norway and Sweden in February 2021.
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