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- Comparing the y scales it is again apparent that many more counties lean to Trump.
- The peak for Biden is between 51% and 56% vaccinated whereas for Trump it is between 31% and 36%.
- As measured by the full width at half max the Biden peak is much wider (Biden 31-36% - 66-71%, Trump 26-31% - 41-46%).
- There are a surprisingly large number of counties with % fully vaccinated below 16% (Biden ~40, Trump ~140)
- This corresponds to ~ 2.4 million people from Biden counties and 4.1 million from Trump counties.
- For Biden the bulk of these counties are in Virginia (71%), followed by Georgia (25%) and Massachusetts (5%)
- For Trump the bulk of the counties are in Georgia (55%), Virginia (39%), and West Virginia (19%), followed by Colorado (2.5%), Nevada (2.5%), North Dakota (2.5%), Arizona (0.6%) and Louisianal (0.6%). .
- For Biden these counties contain ~2.4 million people, for Trump they contain ~ 11.7 million people
Fig 6 |
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Various Demographics
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| Metric | R squared | r | a.x | b |
| per capita income | 0.0074 | 0.086 | -2E-05x | 4.45 |
| % white non hispanic | 0.0112 | 0.106 | 0.008x | 4.5 |
| % unemployed | 0.0067 | 0.082 | 0.086x | 3.57 |
| % poverty | 0.0095 | 0.097 | 0.26x | 3.54 |
| % finish college | 0.0049 | 0.070 | -0.65x | 5.9 |
| % black | 0.0099 | 0.099 | 0.0104x | 3.82 |
| % unemployed | 0.0067 | 0.082 | 0.086x | 3.57 |
| population per sq mile | 0.0042 | 0.065 | 6E-05x | 3.9 |
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Conlusions
- For the US counties there is very little correlation between COVID-19 confirmed cases and many demographic metrics.
- The number of counties that voted for Trump exceeds the number who voted for Biden by over a factor of 4.
- However the Biden counties contain more people.
- In terms of number of counties vs full vaccination, the peak for Biden is between 51% and 56% culy vaccinated whereas for Trump it is between 31% and 36%.
- As measured by the full width at half max the Biden peak is much wider (Biden 31-36% - 66-71%, Trump 26-31% - 41-46%).
- There are a surprisingly large number of counties with % fully vaccinated below 16% (Biden ~40, Trump ~140)
- This corresponds to ~ 2.4 million people from Biden counties and 4.1 million from Trump counties.
- For Biden the bulk of these counties are in Virginia (71%), followed by Georgia (25%) and Massachusetts (5%)
- For Trump the bulk of the counties are in Georgia (55%), Virginia (39%), and West Virginia (19%), followed by Colorado (2.5%), Nevada (2.5%), North Dakota (2.5%), Arizona (0.6%) and Louisianal (0.6%).
- For Biden these counties contain ~2.4 million people, for Trump they contain ~ 11.7 million people
- A few counties have < 1% of their population fully vaccinated.
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Sources
Confirmed cases per county data
https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/. Note that Hawaii, Texas and Alaska data is missing.
Presidential election results
Delta variant cases by country
country: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1245971/number-delta-variant-worldwide-by-country/
US electoral results 2020 by county
https://engaging-data.com/county-electoral-map-land-vs-population/:
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COVID-variants in UK and US
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=latest&country=
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ALB~AND~AUT~BLR~BEL~BIH~BGR~HRV~CYP~CZE~DNK~EST~FIN~FRA~DEU~GRC~HUN~ISL~IRL~ITA~OWID_KOS~LVA~LIE~LTU~LUX~MLT~MDA~MCO~MNE~NLD~MKD~NOR~POL~PRT~ROU~RUS~SMR~SRB~SVK~SVN~ESP~SWE~CHE~UKR~GBR~VAT®ion=World&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc&Interval=Cumulative&Align+outbreaks=false&Relative+to+Population=true&Metric=Vaccine+doses
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Daily confirmed cases per million population by country
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases?country=IND~GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA~USA~ESP~PRT
COVID vaccinations by country
https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-County/8xkx-amqh/data
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
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ALB~AND~AUT~BLR~BEL~BIH~BGR~HRV~CYP~CZE~DNK~
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EST~FIN~FRA~DEU~GRC~HUN~ISL~IRL~ITA~
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OWID_KOS~LVA~LIE~LTU~LUX~MLT~MDA~MCO~MNE~NLD~
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MKD~NOR~POL~PRT~ROU~RUS~SMR~SRB~
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SVK~SVN~ESP~SWE~CHE~UKR~GBR~VAT®ion=World
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&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred
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&pickerSort=desc&Interval=Cumulative&Align+outbreaks=false
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