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"The modeled trajectory of this variant in the U.S. exhibits rapid growth in early 2021, becoming the predominant variant in March,” according to the CDC study released Friday Jan 15 [2]
Are the new strains more deadly
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Worldwide view
There is some evidence (see below) of an increase in the ratio of deaths/confirmed cases for Denmark, South Africa, the UK and the US.starting December and January.
| Ratio of deaths to confirmed cases since May 2020 | Detail ratio of deaths to confirmed cases November 1st 2020 forward |
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For the above-mentioned countries, looking at the dates when the ratio was last at a minimum and the following first maximum, we get the table below:
| Country | minimum date (ratio) | maximum following minimum (ratio) | days between minimum and maximum | Increase in ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark (DK) | 12/21/2000 (0.76) | 2/12/2021 (1.12) | 53 days | 47% |
| United Kingdom (UK) | 1/17/2021 (2.61) | 3/3/2021 (2.95) | 45 days | 13% |
| United States (US) | 1/20/2021 (1.68) | 3/6/2021 (1.81) | 45 days | 7.7% |
| South Africa (ZA) | 12/27/2021 (2.66) | 3/10/2021 (3.35) | 73 days | 25% |
This increase of the ratio for the UK variant in Denmark, the UK and the US is in line with the March 10 reported increased virulence of the new strain [4].
| Confirmed cases and deaths since Jan 2020 | Confirmed cases and deaths since November 1st 2020 |
|---|---|
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US states
References:
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It is also seen that there has been an uptick in confirmed cases for Brazil, Finland, Norway and Sweden in February 2021.
US States view
As of Jan 29, 2021 there were 315 cases of the UK strain detected in the US The leading states with 14 or more cases were CA (92 cases), FL (92), NY (22), Michigan (17) and GE (14). and as of Feb. 23, there were 1,881 reported cases of this (UK) variant in 45 U.S. states. [3].
As seen below there is a slight increase in. the ratio deaths/confirmed. However, it is unclear whether this is related to the virus change, since unlike the countries above, there are similar large changes earlier in 2020 which would have had nothing to do with the UK variant.
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References:
[1] https://www.today.com/health/how-many-strains-covid-19-t207173, updated Feb 28, viewed March 9, 2021
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/new-covid-variant-first-found-in-uk-could-become-dominant-strain-in-us-by-march-cdc-says-.html viewed March 9, 2021
[3 ] https://bestlifeonline.com/new-covid-strain-states/
[4] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-variant-britain/uk-covid-19-variant-has-significantly-higher-death-rate-study-finds-idUSKBN2B213E