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It is seen in Fig 3 that there are over four times more counties won by Trump compared to counties won by Biden. This can also be observed in Fig 4 by looking at a map of results by county from https://brilliantmaps.com/2020-county-election-map/. However, as one includes the county populations in Fig 5 by means of a bubble plot one can see the impact leans more to Biden.
Frequency histograms of % of the population fully vaccinated for counties won by Biden and % of the population fully vaccinated for counties won by Trump are shown below.
- Comparing the y scales it is again apparent that many more counties lean to Trump.
- The peak for Biden is between 51% and 56% vaccinated whereas for Trump it is between 31% and 36%.
- As measured by the full width at half max the Biden peak is much wider (Biden 31-36% - 66-71%, Trump 26-31% - 41-46%).
- There are a surprisingly large number of counties with % fully vaccinated below 16% (Biden ~40, Trump ~140)
- For Biden the bulk of these counties are in Virginia (71%), followed by Georgia (25%) and Massachusetts (5%)
- For Trump the bulk are in Georgia (55%), Virginia (39%), and West Virginia (19%), followed by Colorado (2.5%), Nevada (2.5%), North Dakota (2.5%), Arizona (0.6%) and Louisianal (0.6%).
Fig 6 |
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Various Demographics
Here we look at the correlations between various demographics etc.
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Another way of observing how Biden was more popular in the more densely populated counties is seen in Fig 6 7 where we plot the point difference against the population density and see that the Pearson R2 correlation (a measure of the total variation of y explained by the predictor (regressor) x) is ~28%, and the Pearson r (the correlation between x and y) = sqrt(R2) ~ 53%.
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US COVID-19 Cumulative cases from 1/1/2021 thru vs demographics
Below we see the US by county COVID-19 cumulative cases from 1/1/2021 thru 7/29/2021 cases plotted against 8 demographics. It is seen that there is very little correlation against any of the demographics. The table below summarizes the R2, r and a and b in the trendline y = a.x + b
| Metric | R squared | r | a.x | b |
| per capita income | 0.0074 | 0.086 | -2E-05x | 4.45 |
| % white non hispanic | 0.0112 | 0.106 | 0.008x | 4.5 |
| % unemployed | 0.0067 | 0.082 | 0.086x | 3.57 |
| % poverty | 0.0095 | 0.097 | 0.26x | 3.54 |
| % finish college | 0.0049 | 0.070 | -0.65x | 5.9 |
| % black | 0.0099 | 0.099 | 0.0104x | 3.82 |
| % unemployed | 0.0067 | 0.082 | 0.086x | 3.57 |
| population per sq mile | 0.0042 | 0.065 | 6E-05x | 3.9 |
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Also see:
