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We are using the Johns Hopkins University (JHU)  data compilations of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths for countries of the world  (see https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv and https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv).  From these data we extract the data by country and create chats of the daily 7 day smoothed daily confirmed cases and deaths by country organized by region. The charts are created using the Perl Excel package (see https://metacpan.org/pod/Excel::Writer::XLSX::Chart)

The patterns include peaks, valleys (for example Indonesia), and slopes (see for example Australia or Latvia), with peaks being the most common. Problems with identifying corresponding patterns include:

  • Peaks that are very broad or not sharp enough (see for example Sweden).
  • Peaks which consist of multiple sub-peaks where the sub-peaks for say confirmed cases do not match those for deaths (see for example Hong Kong).
  • Peaks in deaths that appear to precede the confirmed cases (see for example Tajikistan)

Other matching problems include:

  • Countries with sudden step increases in the confirmed cases or deaths or both, presumably to catch up on missed data entry for the country (see for example Ecuador and Kyrgzstan)
  • Countries with low statistics, especially for deaths (see for example Taiwan).
  • Countries with no deaths reported (see for example Cambodia and Laos). 

The images below show the time series of confirmed cases (solid line) and deaths (dashed line) for representative countries and regions of the world.  We choose these countries since they have large numbers of confirmed cases, and are expected to have a reasonably good accounting of the cases. The Diff is the approximate number of days prominent matching features in the time series (e.g. peaks, valleys and slopes) of the two cases. In many, but not al cases we identify the matching structures and the Diff in days. You can click on the an image to blow up its size and see details. 

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Australia Diff = 10 days, 21 days

China Diff = 5 days, 5 days

Hong Kong Diff = 10 days, 10 days,  20 days

Japan Diff = 13 days, 11 days

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South Korea Diff = 11 daysTaiwan Diff = ?



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Argentina Diff 15 days

Bolivia Diff ?

Brazil Diff ?

Chile Diff ?

Columbia Diff ?Ecuador Diff ?Paraguay Diff ?Peru Diff ?

Uruguay Diff ?Venezuela Diff ?Mexico


South East Asia

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Cambodia Diff ?, 0 deaths reported

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Indonesia Diff 7 days

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Laos Diff ?, 0 deaths reported

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Cambodia Diff ?, 0 deaths reported

Indonesia Diff 7 days

Laos Diff ?, 0 deaths reported

Malaysia Diff 2 days



Phillipines Diff ? difficult to match peaksThailand Diff ? difficult to match peaksVietnam Diff ? only 35 deaths

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