Table of Contents
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Introduction
This is an attempt to look at the delay between patterns (e.g. peaks, valleys, slopes) in confirmed cases and the resultant patterns in deaths. We are using the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) data compilations (see https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv and https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv).
Delay between Confirmed cases and Deaths
The images below show the time series of confirmed cases (solid line) and deaths (dashed line) for European, US and South African countries. We choose these countries since they have large numbers of confirmed cases, and are expected to have reasonably good accounting of the cases. The Diff is the approximate number of days between peaks of confirmed cases and the deaths. You can click on the image to blow its size up and see details.
Northern, Western, Southern Europe and South Africa
Belgium Diff= ?, 15 days | Denmark Diff=32 days | Finland Diff= 14 days, 9 days | Germany Diff =19 days, 21 days |
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Greece Diff = 14 days | France Diff= -7 days, 14 days | Italy Diff = 6 days, 14 days | Iran Diff=8days, 12 days |
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| Netherland Diff = 10 days, 19 days | Latvia Diff 13 days | Lithuania Diff 11 days | South Africa Diff=9 days, 5 days |
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Spain Diff= 4 days, to come | Sweden Diff=peaks not sharp enough | US Diff= 12days, 14 days, 12 days, 6 days | UK Diff=14 days, 14 days |
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Central Europe
Austria Diff = 9 days, 19 days | Bulgaria Diff = 17 days | Czech Republic Diff = 11 days, 6 days | Hungary Diff = 19 days |
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| Poland Diff =15 days | Romania Diff = 20 days | Slovakia Diff hard to clearly identify | Switzerland Diff = 14 days, 12 days |
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South Asia
Afghanistan Diff 9 days | Bangladesh Diff 19 days, 9 days | Bhutan Diff ? | India Dif f hovers around 0 |
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Nepal Diff 8 days | Pakistan Diff 14 days | Sri Lanka Diff ? | |
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East Asia and Australasia
Australia Diff = 10 days, 21 days | China Diff = 5 days, 5 days | Hong Kong Diff = 10 days, 10 days, 20 days | Japan Diff = 13 days, 11 days |
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| South Korea Diff = 11 days | Taiwan Diff = ? | ||
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Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
Armenia Diff 8 days | Azerbaijan Diff 10 days | Belarus Diff ? | Kazakhstan Diff $ |
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| Kyrgystan Diff ? | Russia Diff 20 days, 0 days | Tajikistan Diff -ve days | Ukraine Diff 16 days |
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| Uzbekistan Diff ? | |||
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South America and Mexico
Argentina Diff 15 days | Bolivia Diff ? | Brazil Diff ? | Chile Diff ? |
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| Columbia Diff ? | Ecuador Diff ? | Paraguay Diff ? | Peru Diff ? |
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| Uruguay Diff ? | Venezuela Diff ? | Mexico | |
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South East Asia
Cambodia Diff ?, 0 deaths reported | Indonesia Diff 7 days | Laos Diff ?, 0 deaths reported | Malaysia Diff 2 days |
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Cambodia Diff ?, 0 deaths reported | Indonesia Diff 7 days | Laos Diff ?, 0 deaths reported | Malaysia Diff 2 days |
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| Phillipines Diff ? difficult to match peaks | Thailand Diff ? difficult to match peaks | Vietnam Diff ? only 35 deaths | |
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