...
A single point source: Crab_Pulsar
Using DC1 irfs:
Prefactor |
|
| Index |
|
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
true value | MC dist | KS prob | true value | MC dist | KS prob |
27.00 | 27.21 +/- 1.92 | 4.14e-03 | -2.19 | -2.16 +/- 0.06 | 1.59e-26 |
...
Here is a FITS image of the count map, summed over energies, used in these fits.
Using DC1 irfs:
- PKS0528+134
Prefactor
Index
true value
MC dist
KS prob
true value
MC dist
KS prob
13.65
14.37 +/- 1.70
6.31e-25
-2.46
-2.55 +/- 0.13
1.87e-73
...
These analyses use this ROI file.
Crab_Pulsar
DC1 irfs:
Prefactor |
|
| Index |
|
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
true value | MC dist | KS prob | true value | MC dist | KS prob |
27.00 | 28.19 +/- 1.84 | 3.55e-62 | -2.19 | -2.22 +/- 0.05 | 1.39e-60 |
Glast 25 irfs:
Prefactor |
|
| Index |
|
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
true value | MC dist | KS prob | true value | MC dist | KS prob |
27.00 | 26.99 +/- 1.28 | 2.16e-01 | -2.19 | -2.19 +/- 0.04 | 2.44e-01 |
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
...
Error estimates for any single fit are given by taking the square root of the diagonal elements of the covariance matrix, which in turn is estimated as the inverse Hessian of the -log-likelihood. Note that the definition of the confidence interval corresponds to a specified change in the log-likelihood along a given direction in parameter space. The estimates obtained from the inverse Hessian are only accurate insofar as the likelihood surface at the local minimum can be represented as a quadratic function of the model parameters.
Using DC1 irfs:
The blue curves are the best-fit parameter values and error estimates obtained from the inverse Hessian represented as Gaussian functions. The red curves are Gaussians fit to the histograms.
PKS 0528+134, Crab, & Geminga
DC1 irfs:
- PKS0528p134
Prefactor
Index
true value
MC dist
KS prob
true value
MC dist
KS prob
13.65
14.62 +/- 1.75
3.13e-40
-2.46
-2.52 +/- 0.11
5.13e-40
...
- Geminga
Prefactor
Index
true value
MC dist
KS prob
true value
MC dist
KS prob
23.29
24.38 +/- 1.74
4.84e-59
-1.66
-1.68 +/- 0.03
4.37e-58
Glast 25 irfs:
- PKS0528p134
Prefactor
Index
true value
MC dist
KS prob
true value
MC dist
KS prob
13.65
13.61 +/- 1.21
2.04e-01
-2.46
-2.46 +/- 0.09
1.31e-02
- Crab
Prefactor
Index
true value
MC dist
KS prob
true value
MC dist
KS prob
27.00
26.97 +/- 1.42
7.77e-01
-2.19
-2.19 +/- 0.05
7.37e-01
- Geminga
Prefactor
Index
true value
MC dist
KS prob
true value
MC dist
KS prob
23.29
23.39 +/- 1.32
1.96e-01
-1.66
-1.66 +/- 0.03
2.49e-02
MCMC results for a single trial
As before, the blue curves are the best-fit parameter values and error estimates obtained from the inverse Hessian represented as Gaussian functions; the red curves are Gaussians fit to the histograms.
Using DC1 irfs:
Extragalactic Diffuse
The ROI file.
Using DC1 irfs:
Prefactor |
|
| Index |
|
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
true value | MC dist | KS prob | true value | MC dist | KS prob |
1.45 | 1.48 +/- 0.06 | 1.02e-55 | -2.10 | -2.10 +/- 0.03 | 5.79e-08 |
...