Analysis

We took the JHU cumulative Confirmed cases and Deaths for world countries, normalized by a country's population for Nov 11, 2020. Using Excel we sorted by cumulative Confirmed cases per million population. We took the top 100 countries by cumulative Confirmed cases per million population and plotted the Log10(cumulative Deaths versus per million population) versus the Log10(cumulative Confirmed cases per million population) grouped by continent. Each point was labeled by the country's top-level domain (TLD) using http://www.appspro.com/Utilities/ChartLabeler.htm, and the points for each continent fitted to a power-law whose parameters are shown on the chart. See below.

Details

  • The JHU data provided Confirmed cases for 177 countries.
  • Of the top 100 countries by cumulative Confirmed cases per million population:
    • 12 were from Africa out of 55 African countries with JHU cumulative Confirmed cases, or 18%
    • 25 from Asia out of 50 with JHU cumulative Confirmed cases or 50%
    • 39 from Europe out of 39 with JHU cumulative Confirmed cases or 100%
    • 24 from America out of 31 with JHU Confirmed cases or 64%
  • There are strong correlations (coefficient of determination R2 >=0.6) of cumulative Deaths per million population vs cumulative Confirmed cases per million population for Africa, Europe and America.  
  • Asia has a much weaker correlation (R2=0.26). Its spread is exemplified by comparing the cumulative Deaths per million population for Singapore (TLD=sg) = 4.78 with that of Iran (TLD=ir) = 472 or almost a factor of 100.
    • Asia also has the lowest slope for the trendline.
    • Asia also has 9 of the 11 countries with the lowest ratio of cumulative Deaths/cumulative Confirmed cases, namely: Singapore (sg), Qatar(qa), Maldives (mv), United Arab Emirates (ae), Bahrain (bh), Nepal (np) and Kuwait (kw). The other two (non Asian countries) are Botswana (bw) and Iceland (is).

The spreasheet is here.


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