Internet and Africa
- The World Cup and Africa
- Impact of Cable Cuts
- Impact of connecting Sri Lanka to TEIN3
Internet History and Trends
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9M0RPNr9qg
- Originally 4 Internet nodes, UCLA, Stanford Research Institute, MIT, 50kbit backbone (today a modem nb scaling up a million times) Jan 83 400 nodes, now 750M
- Built as a collaboration of global proportions, independent stand on own, self managed autonomous systems (Bill Cheswick autonomous map 1999) , decentralized (chaotic, no central control/management cf phone system), best effort, no guarantees, recovery from losses, pipelining (TCP), host flow control, checksums, non-proprietary (c.f. SNA, DECnet, XNS …), little focus on security (if had focused on this might never have happened), simple black boxes (routers connect nets) that do not retain information about the individual flows, packets inside envelopes, layering (independent of each other, i.e. middle layers don’t know if lower layers are wireless, satellite, copper, fibre, upper layer independent of applications cf purpose designed TV broadcast networks, cable networks, telephone network, only end device knows what the contents mean).
- problems:
- Address space IPv6 (IPV4 only an experiment so 32 bits were fine, but went into production)
- DNS has vulnerabilities so need digital signatures to prevent poisoning and directing traffic where it does not belong (DNSSEC)
- Security: Spam, viruses, Trojan horses, DOS, DDOS, mistakes of routing, weak OS, naïve browsers and users, (not everyone in the general public has everyone else’s best interests in mind, initial trust
- Mobility (used to be to connect big computers that do not move around, now as move around need to change IP address), persistence, presence, more than best effort (QoS), mesh & sensor nets, delay and disruption tolerance (Internet does not do well in these cases), allow device to move with different IP addresses (today looks like a hi-jack so need to have mechanisms to establish trust between parties if allow dynamics), also in mobile world the topology changes(TCP/IP OK for links going up and down) not well solved, persistent connections do not exists since no session layer so hard to re-establish a session at the place where it left off, self-organised nodes discover each other but bad guy may join how does one stop this, how does one trust the others – e.g. military if post over-run and bad guy gets device she can join, how to stop it.
- Growth in usage in last decade, see http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8552410.stm
- CPUs early 60’s ~ 50 years ago Stretch 1.2MIPS, $8M, today 3GHz $150, i.e. 3000 times faster 50,000 times cheaper,
- WANs 1960s 75bps modems, now 10-100Gbps, i.e. billion times faster (see http://www.ziplink.net/users/lroberts/IEEEGrowthTrends/IEEEComputer12-99.htm)
visible, large number hiding behind FW, current usage largest group in China and still small % penetration (tells where products go), 75% of world still to connect, mobiles big help
when in research domain), organized crime, state sponsored intelligence gathering, privacy.
- performance at first just getting it to work was a major challenge, now time to think of how to improve performance and it is difficult to create a new network. Think back to start of Internet, at the time there was a functioning worldwide network = the telephone net so how could another one take over, but it did.
- Address devices inside an end point
- Broadcast turned into unicast, Multicast could be more efficient for some apps
- Lack of tools for strong authentication and identification are needed for some applications (e.g. safe to use the cloud)
- Next gen Internet:
- Internet critical to global economy
- To borrow from John Lennon: Imagine there's no latency, no spam or phishing, a community of trust. Imagine all the people, able to get online.
- Goal: Their goal is audacious: To create an Internet without so many security breaches, with better trust and built-in identity management. Researchers are trying to build an Internet that's more reliable, higher performing and better able to manage exabytes of content. And they're hoping to build an Internet that extends connectivity to the most remote regions of the world, perhaps to other planets.
- Youth of today brought up with very different expectations (what’s a wired phone, a payphone, a modem, typewriter, encyclopedia); => messaging, Google searches, Multimedia Internet, video communication (YouTube), Internet access everywhere, mobility, virtual worlds, social networking, video games, shared information (anyone can publish) and they are tomorrow’s leaders.
- In 1998 75% of all Internet users were Americans, now < 15%. The complexion of the Web - its users, their desires, their languages, points of entry and experiences - has subtly and not-so-subtly changed. All these new online participants bring with them different values, social norms, and styles of expression. Today's Internet is increasingly a reflection of the world's cultures and its governments, which often have very different ideas about how to shape what happens online. Has its open architecture become so frightening to some users that they would prefer to return to closed networks? How will varying ideas about privacy, identity, anonymity and democracy shape the Internet of the future? Is the free and open Internet our fathers fought to build over the objections of commercial giants, soon to be shaped more by corporations and governments than by individual creativity and the free flow of ideas? “Not your fathers Internet – Redefining Digital culture”, Laura Sydel, talk at Computer History 8/19/2010
- Available everywhere (ubiquity):
- end 2010 60% of US commercial aircraft (out of 3500 total planes) will have WiFi (Bloomberg Business Week Jul 12-18, 2010, market intelligence firm In-Stat); revenue from in-flight broadband 2009 - $7M, 2010 = $95M.
- Smartphones
- Trends from Telegeography and Akamai
- Higher speeds 40G (data center), 100G (carrier & longer term, Infinera deliver 2012), 40/100G Ethernet 802.3ab standard ratified 6/17/2010, products ship by year’s end
- History: 1973 Metcalf writes memo, 1976 1st paper published, 1979 Metcalfe founds 3COM, 1985 IEEE takes over Ethernet standards, 1986 Ethernet over yellow coax cable, 1989 Kalpana ships first switch, 1991 twisted pair, 1994 Ethernet over fibre, 1995 100Mbps Ethernet, 2002 10Gbps, 2010 100Gbps
- Costs trans-atlantic vs trans-pacific and intra-asian routes Lease 10Gbps NY-London $9K-20K/month vs Tokyo-LA $65K-80K (Telegeography), getting closer 3% annually vs 21%_
- Cisco predicts that the biggest driver for the traffic increase will come from video, which will account for roughly 64% of all mobile data traffic in 2013 and 90% of all Internet traffic. In 2008, video traffic averaged around 13,000 TB per month, or roughly 39% of all mobile traffic. By 2013, video traffic will increase by more than 100 times and will average around 1.3 million TB per month, Cisco projects.
- Broadband (DSL, Cable FTTx)
- Size of web pages
- VoIP, Skype, MOS, QoS
- Initially to save phone usage costs, potentially higher quality (bandwidth not limited to 3kbps unless have to use TDM en-route), hi quality voice important for conveying subtleties, ability to understand accents/dialects (think outsourcing), poor quality is main reason not use cell-phone as primary home phone (http://www.polycom.com/global/documents/whitepapers/can_you_hear_what_i_mean_polycom_delivers_hd_voice.pdf). VoIP now a standard (no longer research or disruptive technology). 2010 IDC estimates 40M consumers in US will use VoIP to communicate (e.g. important for out-sourcing)
- Skype uses open internet, being used for business, travelers
- New integration of voice with other apps/services, e.g. RFID tag to allow a lost suitcase to call home, voice recognition
- MobileTV (Google TV)
- Mobile TV growth estimated at 50-55% CAGR, end 2008 75M users and 45% in S. Korea and Japan. Adoption in India, China and US are enormous potentials, killer app in Asian markets?
*End User devices
- OLPC, netbooks, Smartbooks(iPads, Kindles), smartphones
- Smartbooks: mobile device falls between Cell phones and netbooks; battery life 1 day, uses lower power processor (e.g. ARM)
- Amazon e-Books have already overtaken hardcover sales.
- Nb iPAD timing is just right. Go introduced PenPoint pad in late 1980s (6 years and $75M in venture capital Go evaporated) then Apple developed Newton, then Palm developed the Pilot. Timing required faster processors, lower power, lower component costs, the Internet and robust wireless networks) SJ mercury Sun Jul 25, 2010. See http://sports.tmcnet.com/news/2010/07/25/4918626.htm
- Forrester estimates tablets will outsell netbooks in US in 2013. Tablets will consititute 20% of all PC sales in 2015.
- iPAD designed as a media consumption device for consumers, but also providing a unique mobile computing platform for business as well. Bloomberg reports that Wells Fargo has approved the iPad for business use, and that SAP AG, Tellabs Inc., and Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz unit are all using the Apple iPad for various tasks ranging from e-mail access to empowering the mobile sales force with the tools to approve shipping orders or verify auto financing options. Apple has sold more than three million iPads already, and analysts estimate that it is on track to continue selling roughly two million more tablets per month. It's a lot of estimates and speculation, but if the AT&T statistic that four in ten iPhones are purchased for business use carries over to iPads, that would mean that 1.2 million of the iPads are currently being used for business purposes--and that 800k more are being added each month. A recent survey found that eight in ten business professionals rely on their smartphone as the primary business communication platform, and would rather give up coffee than surrender the smartphone. The survey also indicated that 34 percent of respondents use on the smartphone more than a PC for business computing, and that seven percent leave the laptop at home and rely purely on the smartphone when traveling.
How does the Internet Work
H1. How is the Internet Performing
Network Measurements
- Anomaly detection
- Alerting
Measuring the Digital Divide (ppt, video
How to Accelerate your Internet
- Policy
- Measurement
- Cloning
- Hotmail (see work desktop)
Mobile phone and mobile computing
- Examples of effectiveness of mobile computing
- Rent a car check in at the curb
- Real time Bus schedules for students
- Push button access to nurse practitioners
- in future any micro-processor will have a wireless access
Wireless
- WiFi 802.11a, b, g, n (reliability, performance, security, ubiquity (starting to appear on airlines)
- 802.11n throughput increase 8 times per radio, WiFi connect rates increase nearly 6 times
- Reliability vs wired
- RF obstacles like walls, heavy channel utilization, poor RF network design, bad client drivers, difficulty of management
- WiFi relies on shared access RF medium in unlicensed spactra prone to interference.
- Requires multiprong approach resilient architecture with no single point of failure, mesh support, power adjustments and automatic channel changing to cover gaps if AP goes offline, automatic backup cellphone link
- Mesh networks of clients discover each other, connect securely (WiFi Direct standard) in ad hoc networks. As long as carriers allow it, they will also be able to serve as hubs for small local networks, linking several devices via Wi-Fi and letting them share the phone's 3G or 4G Internet connection.
- 802.16m will be significantly faster than its predecessor. WiMAX Forum Vice President Mohammad Shakouri has said the goal is for the new WiMAX standard to deliver average downlink speeds of more than 100Mbps to users. In contrast, Sprint's initial Xohm WiMAX offering, which debuted commercially in 2008, delivered downlink speeds ranging between 3.7M to 5Mbps. But while 802.16m will give WiMAX a major speed boost, don't expect it to propagate any further than the current WiMAX technology that covers around 31 square miles per access point.
Integration with phones
The number of phones shipped with Wi-Fi jumped to 139.3 million in 2009, up from 92.5 million in 2008, ABI's research indicates that annual shipping number will surpass 500 million units by 2014, when 90 percent of all smartphones will have the technology. At least one phone with 11n – Samsung's Wave – has been announced. An 11n network is also more efficient, so the phone will expend less energy communicating http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/032310-wi-fi-spreading-fast-among.html
Cell phones
- History (see http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/cell-phone4.htm)
- 2G, 3G (GSM, CDMA), WiMAX, LTE,
- How cell phones work (see presentation)
- Towers: cost $120-500K, 9mos to 3 years (incl permits & construction), 80’-400’, 20 people
- Sectors, frequencies (why low is good: potentially 2-3 times more cell towers for same coverage), channels, initial connection, hand-offs, tower radius <=10m in flat areas, often want less (e.g. by reducing power) in cities.
- Importance, growth
- Mobile telecommunications connections worldwide reached five billion in the first week of July on growth in India and China, and could triple by 2016, PRTM Management Consultants said. Revenue will “probably grow 20 percent to 30 percent in the same time,” Ameet Shah, a consultant for PRTM, said from London in a telephone interview. The current revenue figure is about US$900 billion, according to researcher The Mobile World.
Operators must change their operating models and may need to merge to survive, Shah said. Instead of concentrating on “high value, high price and low volume” they must focus on “immense scale, low value and low prices,” he said. Some markets have grown to 150%-200% penetration relative to their populations. More penetration than Internet.
- Contracts vs PAYG, unlimited data vs usage based (e.g. $15 for 250MB vs $30 unlimited), tethering, limit some services to WiFi
H3. SmartPhones (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone),
- 10% of camera phones in 2008, 58% of US had mobile with Web connectivity May 2009, 58% of online consumers currently own a mobile phone capable of connecting to the Web. Of the online consumers with Web-enabled phones, 21% own a smartphone, 8% own an iPhone(TM), and 29% own another type of Web-enabled phone. 42% of PriceGrabber survey respondents said they own a non-Web-enabled phone capable of using voice and text service plans only. iPhone, released on June 29, 2007, jump-started mainstream smartphone adoption, with 75% more online consumers purchasing their first Web-enabled phone in 2007 compared with 2006. Despite the economic climate, 8% of online consumers purchased their first Web-enabled phone in Q1 2009. iPhone holds 28% of smartphone market, Android 9%, RIM 35% (Palm OS 4%, Linux 3%, Symbian 2% (source: the Nielsen Company, see http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/iphone-vs-android/)
10% of online consumers said they purchase online from their mobile device, 16% compare prices and another 16% research product details/specifications. Of the online consumers making purchases from their mobile phones, 58% have purchased digital content for their phone, 51% have purchased consumer electronics, 37% have purchased computers, 36% have purchased books, and 31% have purchased clothing. Smartphone and iPhone owners are comfortable using the mobile Internet to make purchases. 56% of Apple iPhone owners and 28% of smartphone owners already are comparing prices online with their mobile phones. Additionally, 27% of iPhone owners and 35% of smartphone owners anticipate that they will be comparing prices within two years. http://www.itfacts.biz/58-of-americans-have-a-mobile-phone-with-web-connectivity/12965 (http://www.itfacts.biz/58-of-americans-have-a-mobile-phone-with-web-connectivity/12965),
- Smartphone processor chips contain: cpu (<1/4 chip), power saving, analog ccts, video DACs. Putting all on one chips saves space, faster access. iPhone 3GS 2009 ran on ARM Cortex A8clocked at 600MHz Apple A4 runs at 1GHz. In future teripheral functions such as GPS and cellular tower communication are candidates for integration into the chip.
- 174M (Bijal Patel telecommunications@vgtelecoms.com) Smartphone shipments in 2009, Facebook users send 1B IMs/day (passed 500M users logging on in one per month in July 2010, Facebook alone accounting for 50% of the UK's entire mobile Internet traffic), mobile market growing to €417 billion in 2010. Strongest growth in VoIP, in 2010 mobile phone users will download 6B applications to their mobile phones, currently (2010) there are 4Billion mobile subscribers 6B by 2013, smartphones outsell PCs by 2011 and will be 50% of the handset market by end of 2013. Strongest market growth in the BRIC countries. In 2010 Chinese telecom market grows by 8% to €126 billion and the Indian market will grow by a staggering 15% to €40.5 billion. Mobile Device management market expected to grow to $9B by 2015.
- Smartphone sales will surpass worldwide PC sales by the end of 2011, RBC says. Global mobile phone sales totalled 286.1 mln units in Q2 2009, a 6.1% decrease from Q2 2008, according to Gartner. However, smartphone sales surpassed 40 mln units, a 27% increase from Q2 2007, representing the fastest-growing segment of the mobile-devices market. http://www.pcworld.com/article/171380/
- Increasing use of mobile browsing web, social networking, mobile banking, email, multimedia players, messaging services
- May overload network, e.g. downloading videos, video iPhone (2 min 720p video is 47MB with 1Mbps uload takes 6.2 mins). Providers such as AT&T putting in limits on amount of data transmitted e.g. 200MBcost $15/month, 2GB costs $25/month, 65% users use < 200MB/month, 98% use < 2GB/month, and only WiFi for video chat
- Security: today’s high end smartphones are 1GHz or higher, have up to 32GB store, and with 4G will have 3Gbps connection speeds. Expect to see a growth in malware and spyware. IT departments not ready to support the new OS’, yet smart phones may have access to sensitive corporate data and can get lost (need remote wipe (Blackberry and iPhone but not Android), need encryption for private data being sent on web (e.g. SSL, VPN), SMS being used for money transfer in Indonesia in small amounts $0.45-$0.90, infect phones with Trojan-SMS.Python.Flocker (exercise caution when browsing Internet to avoid contamination by mistakenly downloading Trojan)
- YouTube 30-50% of actual Mobile traffic, video is 50% of mobile traffic see http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/most-exciting-iphone-4-features-will-be-marre?source=NWWNLE_nlt_daily_am_2010-06-08
- Handsets evolving, adding email, larger screens, touch screens, qwerty keyboards, integrating cameras, line between smartphone and mobile phone is merging
- Emerging nations will move towards mobiles rather than more fixed lines
- 247B emails/day, 1.4 unique email users worldwide, enormous market for mobile email
- Major players: Blackberry (RIM), Nokia, Ericsson, Palm, Android (Google), iPhone (Apple), Microsoft
- US providers
- OS’: Symbian (open source, Feb 2010) , Windows, Android (Google built on Linux, open source and Open handset alliance – Intel, HTC, ARM, Motorola, eBay etc., version 2.2 supports Flash, Microsoft Exchange friendly), Palm WebOS (Linux), iPhone OS (BSD/NextStep)
- Mobile phone, SMS, WiFi, Apps stores, touch screens, color displays, sync with computer
- Internet apps (web, weather, YouTube, email, calendar, maps), camera, video, clock, calculator, phone, GPS, MP3 player, gyroscope in new iPhone (great for Wii type games), Mobile payment:
- Apps stores: Apple (by April 2010 hosted > 185K apps, 3Billion downloads early Jan 2010), RIM, Nokia (Ovi launched May 2009), Palm (June 2009), Microsoft (October 2009 launch), Google
- Delay Tolerant networking & Smartphones (ByteWalla),
- Space Communicatons Protocol Specifications set of extensions to existing protocols (e.g. TCP, security (IPsec), FT == TCP)) developed by the Consultative Committee for Data Space Systems (CCSCS) to improve performance of Internet protocols in space environment
Digital Divide Deployment
(http://www.wikinvest.com/concept/Mobile_Phone_Adoption_in_Developing_Countries, http://www.ertra.com/2006/ghirmaikefela_mar6.htm, http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0933605.html
- users in regions will think of mobile email of being norm
- Mobile licenses vs Internet performance
- MDM Mobile Device management the process of monitoring, controlling, configuring and updating the device software and hardware over the air (OTA) in an automated fashion. MDM comprises standards compliant server component that sends out the management commands to the client installed on mobile devices.
- Mobile Payments: Mobile network operators, often in partnership with banks, card issuers and mobile payment service providers, are fast developing platforms and applications to offer mobile payment services, and with such initiatives in place, the mobile payments segment has established itself in several advanced mobile markets worldwide and is now also expanding its reach in emerging markets. The worldwide mobile payments volume – denoting the face value of purchases and transactions through mobile handsets – stood at USD 68.7 billion in 2009, up from USD 45.6 billion in 2008, and is set to surge nine-fold to reach USD 633.4 billion by end-2014.
In 2009, there were 81.3 million mobile payment users worldwide and this number is forecast to grow over six-fold to reach nearly 490 million by the end of 2014, seeing the worldwide penetration of mobile payment users increasing over four-fold to reach almost 8 percent by end-2014. From simple SMS-based services to advanced bar-coded tickets and beyond, mobile payment services have come a long way and yet still remain in a relatively nascent stage compared to other mobile services. This 110-page report explores how stakeholders can unite to realise the huge untapped potential that mobile payments possess to substantially increase their revenues and user bases. As differentiation becomes ever-more important to network operators, mobile payment service cannot be ignored.http://www.portioresearch.com/Mob_payments_brochure_Mar10.pdf
According to GSMA tere will be 1.7M phone users by end 2012 who do not possess a formal bank account
- Futures: medical monitoring (mhealth), better phone manners, better voice recognition,
- Mobile health, or what the industry is calling mHealth or m-health, is a term used for the practice of medical and public health, supported by mobile devices. The term is most commonly used in reference to using mobile communication devices, such as mobile phones and PDAs, for health services and information.* The Mobilizing for Healthsm grant program will fund U.S. based pilot research projects and ongoing studies in need of additional funding focused on mobile phone-based interventions for low-income patients with chronic diseases, with an immediate interest in diabetes management over the next two years. * *Source: mHealth definition from Wikipedia.org, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MHealth
- Concerns
- cell phones & cancer link inconclusive (see http://www.iarc.fr/, San Francisco requires emission disclosure on mobile handsets, main source of RF is produced by antenna, closer to head higher the exposure, no scientific concensus on link to cancer, lots of studies (e.g. WHO) measured metric is Specific absorption rate (SAR), < 1.6 watts/kg of body weight considered safe by FCC. Manufactured phones vary from 0.1 to 1.59 w/kg (see http://reviews.cnet.com/cell-phone-radiation-levels/)
- Tower emission
- Emergency services (911, 999, 112 etc.) mobility adds another level of complexity
- The reason that business professionals rely on the smartphone so heavily is not that it's a superior communication or computing platform. It comes down to portability and convenience. The desk phone and PC are only functional while you are sitting at your desk, while the smartphone is usually within arm's reach 24/7.
Notebooks are certainly more portable than their desktop PC predecessors, but are very cumbersome and bulky compared to a smartphone. Netbooks provide a smaller, lighter platform with longer battery life in exchange for things like processing power and storage capacity.
- Most mobile computing comes down to Web surfing, e-mail access, reviewing spreadsheets or business documents, and maybe watching a movie on a long flight. Tablet devices like the iPad offer a hybrid approach combining the advantages of the smartphone with the advantages of a netbook to provide mobile business professionals with a device that is more than adequate for those needs.
The iPhone has already broken down the walls and been embraced by many IT departments. As evidenced with Wells Fargo, the iPad-which runs on the same iOS (although the iPad is still on iOS 3.2 and won't receive iOS 4.0 until later this year)-is making the transition from consumer gadget to business tool much faster. http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/070710-ipad-invades-corporate.html?source=NWWNLE_nlt_daily_am_2010-07-08
- “When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that’s what you needed on the farm.” Steve Jobs sees PCs as trucks that will be replaced by more consumer-friendly tablets that he likens to cars.
- Geolocation
- Why: akamai, hotmail, advertising etc
- GPS
- Databases: whois, GeoIPTools, name heuristics
- ping based: trilateration, multilateration, appolonious, constraints