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Predictions

There are many models predicting the short term deaths, in particular, see https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/ for listing and comparing multiple short-term predictions of the number of Americans who will die due to COVID-19. Longer-term, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released its latest pandemic forecast on September 11, 2020.

Top 9 US states by Positivity ratio 9/8/2020

Possible Impact of US presidential campaign rallies

US States time series plots of Covid-19 cases, May-June

time series plot of the US Confirmed cases by state on a log scale.
percent deaths/confirmed cases by state as a function of date:
- with data point labelling
- without data point labelling

US States Motion Charts of Covid-19 deaths vs confirmed cases

Cumulative:

cases with bubbles sized by US state population and colored by per capita income (Jan 28, 2020 - Apr 28, 2000)
cases per million population with bubbles sized by US state population (May 1, 2020 - Jun 22, 2020)
cases per million population with bubbles sized by US state population and colored by per capita income (May 1, 2020, Jun 25, 2020)
cases with bubbles sized by population density of state and colored by per capita income (May 1 2020 - Jun 26, 2020)
March 1, 2020 - July 20, 2020
- Motion Charts with bubbles sized by US state population and colored by per capita income Mar 1, 2020 thru Jul 20
  
  US State population > 10 Million population US State population 6-10 Million population US States 3-6 Million population US States 1.3-3M population
  
  US by state + DC every 5 days color=income US by state + DC every 4 days color=%Hispanic+Black

Daily:

daily cases per million population with bubbles sized by US state population and colored by per capita income (May 1, 2020, Jun 26, 2020)
cases with bubbles sized by US state population and colored by per capita income (May 1, 2020, Jun 26, 2020)

Observations

Looking at the total deaths vs cases it is seen that New York (NY), Delaware (DE), Massachusetts (MA), Rhode Island (RI) and Connecticut (CT) lead the pack followed by Maryland (MD), Illinois (IL) and more recently Louisiana (LA) but other states are catching up.
It is a similar situation when one normalizes the states by their populations.
When one looks at the new daily confirmed cases/Million state population and deaths/Million state population it is seen to be very variable day-to-day.
- Arizona's increased confirmed cases pulled it away from the pack starting May 14, 2020, and Florida pulled away starting May 24, 2020
- The values of new Confirmed cases/day/Million State population appears to decrease as one moves forward in time beyond May 23 but then to increase again (driven by Arizona) starting June 14, 2020. Maybe this is part of the "opening".
Comparing the above with the same data but not normalized by state population
- At the start of May there is a noticeable correlation between deaths and confirmed, by the end of June the correlation is much weaker
- At the start of May the deaths and confirmed is dominated by New York (NY), New Jersey (NJ), Illinois (IL), Massachusetts (MA), California (CA) and Maryland (MD). By the end of June California (CA)is still a leader joined by Texas (TX), Florida (FL), Arizona (AZ), and Georgia (GA).
Looking at the cases with bubbles sized by population density:
- Some states with high population densities such as New York (NY), New Jersey (NJ) and Massachusetts (MA) have high numbers of confirmed cases while others such as Washington DC, Rhode Island (RI), Delaware (DE) have fairly low numbers of confirmed cases.
In general, the deaths/confirmed cases appear to be falling with time for especially as we get into June. This may be a mixture of increased testing finding more cases as well as more effective treatment.
- Exceptions that are still increasing include: NJ, MA, PA, CT, SD, NH, IL.
Jul 22 California passes New York in number of confirmed cases (California population ~ 39M, New York population 20M), New York still has roughly four times California's deaths.

Looking at the July 24, 2020 JHU data there is a strong correlation between the total Confirmed case/state population and the % Hispanic + Black of the state's population.

Confirmed cases/population vs % Hispanic & Black (bubble sizes proportional to state's population)	Confirmed cases/population vs % Black (bubble sizes proportional to state's population)	Deaths/population vs % Hispanic + Black (bubble sizes proportional to state's population)

As would be expected there is strong correlation between the number of reported confirmed cases and a state's population and a noticeable correlation between the reported deaths and a state's population.
x axis is the state's population, y axis is the reported Confirmed cases on July 27. x axis is the state's population, y axis is the reported deaths on July 27.

Confirmed Cases/population

The ten states with the leading confirmed cases/population as of 7/26/2020 were:

State	ID	confirmed/Pop	deaths/Pop	Pop-Density(pop/sq-km)
Delaware	DE	0.026143	0.00143	485.343
Arizona	AZ	0.023728	0.000484	60.109
Louisiana	LA	0.023032	0.000806	108.109
Florida	FL	0.020909	0.000289	378.019
New York	NY	0.020799	0.001648	420.061
New Jersey	NJ	0.020023	0.001762	1218.114
Mississippi	MS	0.01765	0.000502	63.771
District of Columbia	DC	0.017524	0.000864	11020.131
Rhode Island	RI	0.017253	0.000949	1021.565
Massachusetts	MA	0.017019	0.001255	871.08

The lowest ten states were:

State	ID	confirmed/Pop	deaths/Pop	Pop-Density(pop/sq-km)
Hawaii	HI	0.001176	0.000018	222.887
Vermont	VT	0.002236	0.000089	67.923
Maine	ME	0.002869	0.00009	43.1
West Virginia	WV	0.003193	0.000056	76.717
Montana	MT	0.003234	0.000045	7.097
Alaska	AK	0.003419	0.000027	1.294
Oregon	OR	0.004162	0.000072	41.974
Wyoming	WY	0.004532	0.000063	6.037
New Hampshire	NH	0.004837	0.000307	148.621
Kentucky	KY	0.00612	0.000158	112.067

The number of days from the first confirmed case to the first death was 57 +- 6 days.