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There is a sustained increase for a few days in IPDV seen by the University of Malawi on Mar 23, however, a similar rise was seen the week before. Similar rises were also seen by www.parliamen.gov.mw. There is a reduction in the overall magnitude and also the variability of IPDV for all hosts for 2 weeks after Apr 19 following the proposed lockdown.
Looking at the 14 day rolling average and standard deviations of the IPDV measurements for www.parliament.gov.mw chart below, we see a roughly factor of 2 drop in the average and standard deviations around the proposed April 18 lockdown.
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According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Rwanda the main intervention that would impact Internet traffic would appear to be on 21 March, officials announced a two-week lockdown. Both public and private employees are to work from home, under strict measures. There is a small dip in IPDV around this time, however, it is not evident that this is due to the lockdown. Also, there is a larger dip two weeks later. Also on 9 April, three new cases of coronavirus were identified, out of 720 samples examined in the previous 24 hours. This brought the total number of confirmed cases to 113 people (of which seven had recovered)
Looking at the 14 day rolling average and standard deviations for www.rwandaparliament.gov.rw we see the chart below:
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According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sudan, the first case was Mar 12. There is no indication of any interventions. According to https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/sudan-covid-19-situation-update-15-may-2020 a three-weeks long lockdown imposed in Khartoum since mid-April was on 9 May extended for nearly two weeks as part of containment measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus. www.iua.edu.sd stopped responding on Apr 1.
www.cert.sd experience experienced a dramatic sustained increase in IPDV in the week following the first case.
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The first case reported was on Mar 16. On 17 March, Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa announced a range of measures, including closing schools. This corresponds strongly with the drop to near zero for www.suza.ax.tz starting on Mar 18. The first death was recorded Mar 31st , in Dar es Salam. On 21st May, the President announced that colleges will reopen and form six secondary school students will return to school from 1st June, sports will resume from 1st June.
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The large spikes in IPDV for www.costech.or.tz between Feb 18 and Feb 26 are not understood. They are also seen if one looks at the hourly minimum RTT, average RTT, maximum RTT and losses.
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On 18 March, public gatherings including places of worship, pubs, weddings, music shows, rallies and cultural meetings were suspended". Mar 22 1st case confirmed. On 25 March, public transport was suspended for 14 days. Only private cars with not more than three occupants are allowed on the road. On 25 March, public transport was suspended for 14 days. Only private cars with not more than three occupants are allowed on the road. On 26 March, police and other security personnel were heavily deployed in all city suburbs, slums and along the streets to enforce the president's directives. A few people who breached the government's restrictions were arrested. On 30 March, the President declared a nationwide curfew from 7 pm to 6:30 am, which would run for 14 days to prevent the spread of the disease.
These interventions appear to correlate strongly with the rise in IPDV at the Victoria University and to a lesser extent for mail2.starcom.ug.
Zambia
PingER monitors five hosts in Zambia: www.deczambia.gov.zm the Drug Enforcement Commission in the capital Lusaka, www.cooperativecollege.ac.zm the Zambia Cooperative College in Lusaka, www.talk90point5.co.zm the Millenium Radio in Lusaka, www.parliament.gov.zm the NationalAssembly of Zambia in Lusaka, and cobra.unza.zm the University of Zambia in Lusaka.
According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Zambia, the first 2 cases were on Mar 18, the first death was Apr 2. On March 17, 2020, the Zambian government announced that all schools, colleges and universities will be closed on Friday 20 March in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. As seen below there does appear to be an impact (reduction in IPDV by about a factor of two for about a month) on the PingER IPDV for www.cooperativecollege.com.za and www.talk90points5.co.zm
Taking rolling 14-day averages of the IPDV we get the charts below. There is a strong correlation for the Cooperative College Univesity as it closed on Mar 20. The correlation is less strong and starts the week before for the Millenium Radio www.talk90points.co.zm:
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The chart below shows that towards the end of March the IPDV of both hosts drops and smoothes out. This appears to correlate with the interventions mentioned above. To be more specific, following the spike on Monday Mar 30 the 2-week average for (excluding the spike) drops to between 1.06 and 1.3 (including the spike the average is about 1.5-1.6) for www.paynet.ac.zw.
